FIRST ALERT UPDATE ON THE TROPICS: All eyes remain on INVEST 99L producing rain and gusty winds over south Florida. There is a very good chance this system will at-least become a tropical depression within the next 5 days.
WHERE WILL IT GO? Right now I’m leaning with the better agreement amongst the dynamical models which suggests the system will enter the Gulf of Mexico and then turn north. Areas from Biloxi east to Tampa Florida will need to stay weather alert. The dynamic models show more of a turn northeast towards the Florida Gulf Coast and perhaps the Big Bend area. However, these models will continue to struggle until a more defined warm core low is established.
WHAT ABOUT TIMING? The impacts involving heavier rain could begin as early as Wednesday and linger into Friday. So if you have Labor Day weekend plans, the primary threat for rain and gusty winds along the Gulf Coast would impact the start of the weekend, with improving weather on Saturday. That being said, a more intense system would certainly have lingering effects into the weekend.
NEW DEVELOPMENTS: We are also monitoring a new tropical depression near the Carolinas. This system is expected to turn north as it approaches the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Tuesday. By then the system may be a tropical storm. The next name on the 2016 list is Hermine. We’re also keeping an eye on Category Three Hurricane Gaston over the central Atlantic. The latest satellite data shows a well defined eye as the system drifts very slowly northwest and remains well away from land.
THE LATEST ON OUR FORECAST: Back here at home, there are a few showers on radar this afternoon and this wet weather will remain very limited in coverage through the remainder of the day. The chance for a stray shower or storm will end tonight, with lows in the 70s. The bigger story in the short term will continue to be very hot and humid weather through Wednesday. Keep the shades handy because we will have lots of sunshine over the coming days, with a few stray showers, and possibly an afternoon storm. Feels-like temperatures will be surging into the triple digit range. Based on the latest thoughts regarding Invest 99L, I’m thinking deeper tropical moisture to the south could spark a better coverage of scattered showers and storms on Thursday. Drier air could begin to work in behind the tropical system on Friday and help set the stage for a very nice weekend locally. Right now I’m forecasting sunshine with highs in the 80s and lower humidity for Saturday and Sunday. We will continue to fine tune the forecast and I will be sharing some fresh updates beginning at 9PM on WBRC.