WBRC Weather

Wednesday Severe Threat and Timing

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jdice_Fox6

Severe Weather Threat Tomorrow; Especially Friday!

(BAMS FORECAST FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM)

We’re gearing up for some active weather starting tomorrow. The rain has wasted no time in returning to our area and throughout the day it’s been cloudy, with showers and spotty thunderstorms. A cold front will be dropping into the state tomorrow and this will likely produce a line of rain and storms that will shift across the area after 3 PM. The main threat with this line will be damaging straight-line winds and a low end threat for flooding and tornadoes. This will be ROUND 1 of severe weather for the week.

The front that brings tomorrow’s storms will settle to our south and return north on Thursday and Friday. We may have some storms as a strong low-level southerly flow establishes itself. These thunderstorms have the potential to grow quite strong or severe.

We’re most concerned about Friday evening through Saturday morning.  Models suggest a deepening surface low will shift to our northwest putting us in the warm and most unstable sector of the system. This looks to be a strong disturbance with forecasts pressure levels dropping from 998 MB to 992 MB. Wind profiles would suggest strong veering winds conducive to rotating thunderstorms. We’re also seeing forecast low level instabilities at elevated levels, such as CAPE values nearing the 2,000 J/kg range.

Be weather aware tomorrow and especially on Friday as the environment will be most conducive to discrete severe storms. The storms may become more oriented along a southwest to northeast line Friday night, with a slow shift through the area through Saturday morning. Any severe storms along this line could potentially bring damaging straight-line winds or tornadoes.

Have a Plan of Action Now: This is the time to make plans as we gear up for later this week.  Make sure you have multiple sources for receiving warnings like a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio or our iMap Weather Radio App. The can be found at myfoxal.com/apps.  Also, think about where you would go in the event of a tornado warning. Help us spread the message about the severe threats. Chief Meteorologist J-P Dice will have more details on Fox 6 News at 5,6, 9 and 10.  

Wes Wyatt

Fox 6 Meteorologist

wwyatt@wbrc.com

Twitter@weswyattweather

 

Strong to Severe Storms This Week

Warm, moist air remains in place over Alabama this week.  Look for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in today's forecast.

On Wednesday we have a chance of thunderstorms in the morning hours with another round of stronger storms in the forecast Wednesday evening.  Damaging straight line winds appear to be the more likely form of severe weather Wednesday, with an isolated threat of tornadoes in north Alabama.

On Thursday we could see a few strong afternoon thunderstorms as the air will continue to be moist, warm and unstable.

The strongest system of the weak though is poised to move through Friday evening into Saturday morning.  Both shear and instability look to be stronger with this system.  Isolated tornadoes appear possible with this event as well.

Please be "Weather Aware" in the coming days.  And we continue to recommend everyone have a working weather radio, especially with this week's storms which could arrive in the overnight hours when most people are sleeping.

Mickey Ferguson, FOX6 Weather

Forecast Update - Severe Storms Likely

The forecast looks pretty uneventful over the next day.  A weak cool front will move across the region tonight and that will bring a few clouds to the area and possibly an isolated shower.  Expect temperatures to fall into the mid 50s.

We'll see a cloudy sky with mild temperatures for Tuesday.  A few showers and thunderstorms are possible during the later afternoon and early evening.  No severe storms are expected with temperatures climbing to around 70.

Wednesday is a day we need to watch.  An intense squall line will slide through the state during the afternoon.  The greatest threat will be after 3pm and north of I-20.  Expecting damaging winds, hail, and possibly an isolated tornado.  I DO NOT think this will be a widespread tornado event.

On Thursday - temperatures will climb into the mid 70s with plenty of moist unstable air returning to the forecast.  Most of us will see partly sunny skies.

STAY WEATHER AWARE Friday - we are expecting strong to severe storms with the best chance of high impact weather during the nighttime hours.  Please be thinking of your severe weather plans now regarding the developing weather situation Friday.  If models remain the same - we will likely see tornadoes and damaging winds.  Hopefully, the forecast will change for the better, but at this point I do have some concern.

Weekend Forecast: Early morning showers and storms Saturday with the return of some sunshine with highs in the lower to mid 60s.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: jpdice_Fox6

Warmer Temps For Our Area; Another Daytona Delay

We woke up to more clouds today thanks to a disturbance over Florida. This has caused headaches for NASCAR fans awaiting the start of the Daytona 500. At last check the race has been delayed with a planned start time of 6 PM. That could change if additional rain moves into the area. We also had a few spotty showers to start the day but now we’re finally seeing some sunshine and milder temperatures. Highs today will be reaching the middle 60s, with warmer 70 degree temperatures tomorrow. Be sure to check out J-P’s post regarding a couple of severe weather threats this week.

Wes Wyatt-Fox 6 Meteorologist

Follow Me on Twitter@weswyattweather

LIKE ME ON FACEBOOK FOR MORE UPDATES

Temperatures Remain Warm

The Climate Prediction Center is still indicating above average temperatures not only for the next month, but the next three months.  I feel confident we're going to be heading into an early Summertime pattern.

One Month 

Three-Month

 James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: jpdice_Fox6 

Severe Storms Likely This Week

We all need to stay very weather aware this week.  We're expecting TWO rounds of possible severe weather and the second round looks to be packing a a nasty punch.

Watching Wednesday: Our first threat for severe storms will come Wednesday afternoon.  Forecast models are suggesting an intense squall line ahead of a cool front.  I'm not overly impressed with the tornado risk with this system.  I think we'll have the potential for damaging winds and hail along the front.  The highest risk for severe storms with Wednesday's system will be north of I-20 and toward the Tennessee Valley.

We'll be in between systems on Thursday with the cold front beginning to lift northward as a warm front.  This is the priming time for the atmosphere to grow more and more unstable. Moisture will stream in from the Gulf of Mexico.  Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70s for Thursday and Friday.

FRIDAY TROUBLE:  We will probably escape the rain throughout much of Friday, but storms will begin developing during the late afternoon and evening hours.  These storms will likely form ahead of a squall line in the "juicy" warm sector and last through the night.  Models are suggesting the possibility of supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes.  We're seeing considerable instability as well as wind shear with this system. 


The Energy-Helicity Index from the GFS is indicating values approaching 1 in West Alabama.  While this is nothing off the charts - I think we'll see this value increase in the coming days due to the synoptic layout of this system.  It's not my general rule to mention tornado threat this far out, but this is one we certainly need to monitor.  Let's hope we see some changes to reduce the severe weather threat, but I right now it appears significant.

SEVERE WEATHER PLAN: This would be an excellent time to start examining your severe weather plan.  This means having your NOAA Weather Radio with backup batteries set and ready to go, have a portable battery operated AM/FM radio, flashlights, and helmets for you and your children. Stay away from windows and put as many walls between you and the outside world as possible.

We will keep you posted over the coming days!

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: jdice_Fox6

Storms Wednesday, Friday

Look for partly cloudy skies today with only a 20-percent chance of showers.  Our warm temperatures continue this week.

Looking ahead, Wenesday and Friday of this week could be rather stormy.
On Wednesday, a cold front for north Alabama could cause a squall line to develop with damaging straight line winds and isolated tornadoes.
Friday will bring a second and deeper longwave trough through our area giving us another chance of isolated tornadoes. Please  be weather aware for those days.

Mickey Ferguson, FOX6 Weather

More Storms Possible

A cold front is expected to move through the region Wednesday with the potential for damaging straight line winds, although the chance for tornadoes does not appear so likely at this time.

The second system could pose a greater threat as it moves through the Southeast Friday and Saturday.

Additionally, expect the same type temperature fluctuations we normally see during this late Winter/early Spring time frame...warming, followed by increased chances for rain, then cool again.

'Tis the season.

Fred Hunter
FOX6 Meteorologist
fhunter@wbrc.com

"Beware Of Tornado Myths"

Back in January the site Our Amazing Planet posted a story discussing how tornado myths are tough for forecasters to bust. Research was conducted in areas prone to tornadoes. There was an anonymous participant in the study from Cordova that discussed experiences during the April 27th event. The participant said when the tornado was approaching Walker County he felt safe because he was on a hill and tornadoes can’t travel up a hill. The tornado just missed this persons home and we all know the outcome as an EF-3 roared through the heart of Cordova. (Picture: Empire, AL, 27 April 2011)

Over the past few weeks at our weather radio programming events some viewers have posed interesting questions about where they live and tornadoes. You may think tornadoes move along the river or they only move through a certain part of the county. However, when we look back in history we find that there are no natural barriers for tornadoes. There are cases where tornadoes have crossed rivers, high terrain, and reached low terrain. I took numerous pictures of tornado scars on mountain tops in East Alabama following the 27th event. If you look at land surface satellite imagery you will also find continuous damage paths regardless of the type of terrain.  

While growing up in south Tuscaloosa it seemed like all the bad storms went north or weakened before reaching my neighborhood. That changed in 2000 when an F-4 (prior to the EF scale) moved near my home and heavily damaged south Tuscaloosa. There is still lots to be learned about the frequency of tornadoes in parts of our area but always remember that there are no barriers. If conditions are favorable in any county in Alabama, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. I’ve included a link to one of my favorite tornado FAQ’s, this includes lots of tornado myths, check it out: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/

Wes Wyatt-Fox 6 Meteorologist

Follow Me on Twitter@weswyattweather

LIKE ME ON FACEBOOK FOR MORE UPDATES