Over the past few days we’ve talked about a possibility of strong to severe storms later this week. This morning we wanted to share some more detailed thoughts on the late week setup.
Tomorrow Evening: There is a low potential for strong to severe storms to impact north and west sections of the area tomorrow night. The Storm Prediction Center already has portions of Oklahoma and Kansas in a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather tomorrow. Some of the left over storm activity from this region may drop southeast towards Alabama tomorrow night. If we see any strong storms tomorrow night or early on Thursday they could bring damaging winds and hail.
Thursday/Friday: I’ve included the latest 500 MB forecast panel from the Global Forecast System. Notice the deep low pressure area forecasted to be positioned to our northwest Thursday night. As this system evolves on Thursday, we will be in a sector more favorable for scattered strong to severe storms. The primary threat will once again be hail, damaging straight-line winds, and frequent lighting.
One of the main driving forces behind the thunderstorm action on Thursday will be the daytime heating. A strengthening southerly flow, combined with colder air aloft (steep lapse rates), could support additional thunderstorm development Thursday night.
On Friday the cold front associated with this system will enter the state triggering the final round of showers and strong storms. There are still questions regarding the specific timing on Friday. If the front arrives earlier in the day, a lack of heating could be a limiting factor.
The good thing about this whole situation is that we are going to receive some much needed rain. J-P is back in-house tonight and he will have a live update with fresh information coming up at 5PM on Fox6.
Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
On Facebook: facebook.com/weswyattfox6