WBRC Weather

Severe Threat Mainly South of Montgomery Overnight

We're watching the weather tonight and overnight mainly because of a low pressure system spinning just to our south and a warm front lifting to the north.  First of all, I want to stress we are dealing with a very marginal severe threat.  Looking at data tonight - the best chance for any severe weather will be south of Montgomery and actually closer to the Florida panhandle.  The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring that part of the state right now.

This setup is essentially a high shear and low instability type event.  It's similar to what you see with landfalling tropical systems.  You see mostly rain, very few thunderstorms, and a few isolated weaker tornadoes.

We are severely lacking instability one of the key ingredients for severe weather.  If you haven't noticed - it's a bit cool tonight.  The air doesn't have that warm and muggy feeling we so often associate with severe weather.  However, the shear and helicity values are impressive across the southwestern portion of the state.  I would not be surprised to see a watch issued to cover the southern half of the state overnight.

Here are my thoughts for tonight and overnight: The tornado threat will remain mainly in South Alabama.  We might realize a 2-5% risk of an isolated weak spin-up E0-EF1 tornado in areas south of I-20 through the overnight and early morning hours.  This system is largely a rain event.

Monday's Concern:  We will have to watch the evolution of this system during the day on Monday.  The primary threat will be heavy rain, isolated thunderstorms, and again isolated tornadoes.  My concern Monday will be increasing instability as we heat up during the afternoon.  The best threat (and it's a fairly small one) for tornadic developing would be East of I-65 during the afternoon.  Again - this is something we'll have to monitor.  The entire system looks to be a lower end severe threat.

Call to Action: As always - make sure you have your weather radio or smartphone/mobile device nearby just in case tonight through tomorrow afternoon.  While the severe weather threat is low - it's not completely out of the question.

As always Fox 6 will monitor weather tonight and provide updates on-air if necessary.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: jpdice_Fox6 

 

Severe Storms Possible

A chance for Severe Storms will increase by 1 am Monday morning and continue through 6 pm Monday.  An isolated tornado as well as locally heavy rain will be possible through the period.

A trailing cold front should clear the region by early Tuesday allowing gradual clearing and a return to more seasonal temperatures through next weekend.

Of course, we're already looking ahead to the Big Race Weekend next week at Talladega, so let's hope some of these stormy looking clouds clear The Track in time for next week's race.

In the meantime, stay alert for changing weather conditions beginning in the pre-dawn hours Monday and continuing through the day.

Fred Hunter

FOX6 Meteorologist

fhunter@wbrc.com

Heaver Rain About To Enter The State

Here is a snaphot from Fox 6 VIPIR. Patchy areas of light rain continue across the area. Notice the band of heavier rain in Mississippi. We expect this activity to start impacting West Alabama before noon.

Fox 6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt

Twitter @weswyattweather

Facebook.com/weswyattfox6

Sunday Forecast Discussion: Rain Likely-Slight Risk For Severe Weather

We’re waking up to clouds and pockets of light rain across the area this morning. The light rain will continue to overspread the area through lunchtime, with pockets of heavier rain arriving in the afternoon. Thunderstorms will also be possible later today and overnight, with rain totals topping the one inch mark in most areas. There is a chance parts of our area could receive up to three inches of rain by tomorrow afternoon. These wetter locations will face a localized flash flood threat.

A low pressure system with plenty of upper air support will be lifting into the state overnight. While low level instability values may be limited with this system, there will be enough wind shear to spark a severe weather threat for the early morning hours tomorrow. The primary severe threat looks to be between 2 AM and 3 PM tomorrow. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with the threat of damaging straight-line winds and isolated tornadoes. These storms should taper off from west to east during the early morning hours, with clouds and a few scattered showers lingering through Tuesday.

You can expect a gradual change to drier conditions, with mostly cloudy skies giving way to sunshine on Wednesday. Another cold front is expected to reach the state during the Friday/Saturday timeframe and this will bring a slight increase in clouds followed by a change to cooler weather.  A stray shower can’t be ruled out on Saturday.  We will keep you posted

Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt

Twitter @weswyattweather

Facebook.com/weswyattfox6

Water getting cooler

The combination of our already reduced incoming solar radiation each day, due to lower sun angle and less hours of daylight, and 2 or 3 nights with lows in the 40s to lower 50s, has already allowed water temperatures in area lakes to cool off a lot, almost unswimmable unless you are tough.  The water temperature at a depth of 3 feet at our place on the Warrior River has dropped to 73, down from 83 or so at Labor Day and 87 back in July.

Dr. Tim Coleman

Saturday Night Forecast Update: Lots of Rain On The Way

(Here is a look at the Microcast and RPM data for tomorrow morning. Both models are showing rain overspreading the area by mid-morning.)

A very wet weather scenario is beginning to unfold across our area. A strong Pacific Storm system is helping spreads lots of moisture in our direction. A shield of steady rain has already reached central Mississippi and there is a good chance this steadier rain will reach our western and southern areas by sunrise tomorrow. In the meantime, you can expect more hit or miss showers and storms through midnight.

Our Sunday is looking like a very wet day as the surface low associated with this system approaches. The steadier rain will slowly spread north and east with heavier rain late in the day as thunderstorms develop. Conditions may become favorable for a few strong thunderstorms tomorrow night or early on Monday. The bigger threat with this system will be the potential for flash flooding. Rain totals are expected to range between one and three inches!

The weather for Monday and Tuesday looks to remain a bit unsettled as trailing upper air energy brings more clouds and scattered thundershowers.  The rain threat should end by Wednesday but there may be lots of clouds in the area, especially before lunchtime.

We will have more details on the forecast after the Texas and OSU game tonight. Also, join us bright and early tomorrow for Fox 6 News Sunday morning…the show kicks off at 7 AM.  

Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt

wwyatt@wbrc.com

Twitter @weswyattweather

Facebook.com/weswyattfox6

College Kickoff Forecast Update

This evening we are tracking scattered downpours in the Tuscaloosa area. The rain is slowly drifting in an east to southeast direction. I included a snapshot from our Tuscaloosa towercam located at the PNC Bank building in downtown. We are seeing a wet University Boulevard at this time. I also included an update from Fox 6 Live VIPIR.

Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt

wwyatt@wbrc.com

Twitter @weswyattweather

Facebook.com/weswyattfox6

Nadine May Reach The 20-Day Mark

Last weekend I added a post about the rarity of seeing a 20 day old tropical cyclone. Well today Nadine is still churning in the eastern Atlantic. The system was a category one hurricane yesterday and the system has weakened into a tropical storm. The system should remain an organized tropical cyclone through at-least Thursday.

Nadine first formed on September 11th and if the forecast holds true we could be seeing a 16 or 17-day old system. If Nadine lingers into next weekend the system could enter the rare three week mark. Only 6 Atlantic hurricanes have lasted for more than 20 days. The longest being a 28 day stretch from the 1899 San Ciriaco Hurricane.

Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt

wwyatt@wbrc.com

Twitter @weswyattweather

Facebook.com/weswyattfox6

College Football Kickoff Forecasts: Scattered Showers/Storms Possible

Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt

wwyatt@wbrc.com

Twitter @weswyattweather

Facebook.com/weswyattfox6

Saturday Forecast Discussion: Scattered Showers & Storms Today

(HPC: Estimated 1-3 Day Precitipation Totals)

The stretch of nice weather we’ve experienced this week looks to be coming to an end as a pacific storm system slides our way. Currently a weak boundary is stalled over the state and this will help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. More clouds will be entering the area today, with temperatures topping out in the lower 80s. If you’re planning on attending the UAB football game or Alabama game later today I would be sure to grab the poncho just in-case some of these scattered downpours develop near your location.

We’re expecting a surface low to take shape over Louisiana tomorrow as a long wave upper level trough develops over the eastern United States. The low is expected to track northeast towards Alabama tomorrow night. Tomorrow will be a partly to mostly cloudy day, with more scattered thundershowers developing. The chance for a more widespread heavy rain event will arrive tomorrow night as the surface low approaches state. Our neighboring states are already gearing up for this heavier rain potential. Flash flood watches are in place across central Mississippi.

Some of the models are suggesting parts of our area could end up in the warmer-more unstable sector of this storm system. This could set the stage for a few strong to severe storms late tomorrow night. The bigger story looks to be the heavier rainfall potential, with 1-3 inches possible in our area. This rain event should carry over into Monday as the surface low tracks across our state.

Trailing upper air energy looks to keep our weather unsettled through Monday night and on Tuesday. We will have partly to mostly cloudy skies, with showers and thunderstorms possible. Drier weather can be expected for Wednesday and Thursday but a shower or two may return on Friday. Another cold front is expected to arrive by next weekend and this will bring a change to much cooler weather. Be sure to join us for an updated 7-day forecast on Fox 6 News Saturday morning (7-9AM).

Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt

wwyatt@wbrc.com

Twitter @weswyattweather

Facebook.com/weswyattfox6