We're watching the weather tonight and overnight mainly because of a low pressure system spinning just to our south and a warm front lifting to the north. First of all, I want to stress we are dealing with a very marginal severe threat. Looking at data tonight - the best chance for any severe weather will be south of Montgomery and actually closer to the Florida panhandle. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring that part of the state right now.
This setup is essentially a high shear and low instability type event. It's similar to what you see with landfalling tropical systems. You see mostly rain, very few thunderstorms, and a few isolated weaker tornadoes.
We are severely lacking instability one of the key ingredients for severe weather. If you haven't noticed - it's a bit cool tonight. The air doesn't have that warm and muggy feeling we so often associate with severe weather. However, the shear and helicity values are impressive across the southwestern portion of the state. I would not be surprised to see a watch issued to cover the southern half of the state overnight.
Here are my thoughts for tonight and overnight: The tornado threat will remain mainly in South Alabama. We might realize a 2-5% risk of an isolated weak spin-up E0-EF1 tornado in areas south of I-20 through the overnight and early morning hours. This system is largely a rain event.
Monday's Concern: We will have to watch the evolution of this system during the day on Monday. The primary threat will be heavy rain, isolated thunderstorms, and again isolated tornadoes. My concern Monday will be increasing instability as we heat up during the afternoon. The best threat (and it's a fairly small one) for tornadic developing would be East of I-65 during the afternoon. Again - this is something we'll have to monitor. The entire system looks to be a lower end severe threat.
Call to Action: As always - make sure you have your weather radio or smartphone/mobile device nearby just in case tonight through tomorrow afternoon. While the severe weather threat is low - it's not completely out of the question.
As always Fox 6 will monitor weather tonight and provide updates on-air if necessary.
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist