The Storm Prediction Center has extreme West Alabama in a 5% risk for tornadoes after midnight. This would include the Shoals as well as Marion, Lamar, Fayette, and Pickens Counties. The system will seriously lack instability, but there may be a enough shear for small tornado. Let me stress: this is not a major severe weather setup for us. The worst weather will remain across North Mississippi and the Memphis area. The storms will rapidly weaken as they track eastward across the state.
Here's the breakdown I'm thinking for tonight.
Time: 11pm until 2am. I think the peak time will be around midnight.
Where: Counties adjacent to Mississippi line. These include Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin, Marion, Lamar, and Pickens.
What to expect: Remote chance of a small spin-up tornado. More than likely gusty winds right along the front rapidly weakening as they track eastward.
Just a note worth passing along: The proprietary models here at Fox 6 that we run in house are showing little to no severe weather with this system here in Alabama. This is one of those systems where I would advise having the weather radio ready to go and be mindful of the weather. However, the threat will remain on the lower end.
We'll keep you posted!
J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: jpdice_Fox6
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