Monday's Severe Weather Threat

03/18/2013

Monday's Severe Weather Threat

I'm up tonight late spending some time on Monday's forecast. The forecast does include the chance for some severe storms across the state. We'll see rain and thunderstorms move into the area during the overnight with the most significant chance for stronger storms from 2pm-7pm Monday. THIS IS NOT THE SETUP FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK!

Forecast models are showing some pretty high instability across the state to fuel the thunderstorms. For weather junkies, I'm seeing CAPE levels over 3,000 j/kg by early afternoon. With that kind of instability, I'm expect some large hail and intense thunder and lightning.

However, the wind shear and instability really aren't matching up that well. This means the tornado threat will be minimal. If a tornado were to develop - I think it would likely be in South Alabama and not the Northern sections of the state. One of my favorite tools is the Energy Helicity Index or EHI. The highest numbers are West of I-65 and South of I-20/59.

The counties in the Fox 6 viewing area with the greatest potential for severe thunderstorms include Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Sumter, Hale, Greene, Perry, Chilton, Coosa, and South Shelby.

Primary Threats: We will be watching for winds over 40mph, large hail, and the remote chance of a small spin-up tornado. I would place the tornado chance at less than 5%.

The system will still be producing rain and thunderstorms through Monday evening prior to the cool front arriving during the overnight.

We can expect clearing skies after midnight with rain ending. Temperatures on Tuesday will be significantly cooler with highs in the 60s.