Once again, we will be watching for the possibility of severe storms across parts of our state. At this point, forecast models are trending more toward South Alabama and at the worst just south of I-20. The forecast really depends on just how far north the warm front will travel. The farther north the warm front - the better the chances for more widespread severe storms.
The NAM model is showing the highest levels of CAPE or instability I 20 southward. As you probably know, the higher the CAPE value the better the chances for strong storms. With values over 3,000 j/kg - there is certainly the instability to bring high winds and hail to the state. If the warm front lifts more to the north, we would see a better chance of severe storms across the Fox 6 viewing area.
For tornadoes, we need another ingredient and that's wind shear. The wind shear is not quite as impressive. This would limit the tornado threat, but still would not rule out damaging winds similar to last Monday. We always stress severe thunderstorms often do more damage than tornadoes.
Right now - the Energy Helicity Index - another tool I use when forecasting severe weather is indicating the best chance of rain and storms in South Alabama.
The Bottom Line: We will see rain off and on through today with an occasional thunderstorm. The period of time to monitor for severe storms will be from 2pm until 10pm Saturday. In the Fox 6 viewing area, the counties with the highest potential for severe storms will be Hale, Greene, Perry, Chilton, Coosa, and Tallapoosa. South Shelby County could also be at a small risk tomorrow afternoon.
This is a weather situation subject to some significant changes so stay with Fox 6 for updates throughout today and the weekend.
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist