The temperatures have soared into the lower 90s over most of the area this afternoon and it’s about to get even hotter. We’re starting to notice the effects of a strong summer time ridge with most of showers and storm activity today over eastern Alabama. This is along the eastern edge of the high pressure ridge which is channeling the showers and storms in a southeast direction towards Georgia. A shower or storm can’t be ruled out as far west as Cullman or Birmingham. The most likely region for development however, will remain over east and northeast counties. Some of these storms could be quite strong with gusty winds and frequent lightning.
VERY HOT AND DRY DAYS AHEAD: Get ready to fire up the sprinklers because rain is going to be very hard to find over the next couple of days. A lone shower can’t be ruled out to the far north or east but most areas will remain dry. The sky will be partly to mostly sunny for tomorrow and Wednesday with high temperatures approaching 95°; the real feel temperature could top 100°.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY: A front will be dropping in from the north Wednesday night and this will bring a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms that will linger into Thursday. This front should eventually settle to our south with slightly cooler and less humid air arriving just in time for the 4th! Be sure to join us this evening for all of the specifics.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING: The hurricane hunters are currently investigating the disturbance east of Florida this afternoon. There is a very good chance this could become a tropical depression. Right now we do not expect this system to enter the Gulf of Mexico. Models show the system stalling and then turning west and eventually north with time. Tropical Storm Watches may be issued for portions of the Florida Coast before the day is over.
We head into today with highs and lows pretty close to average for this time of the year. Norms in the B'ham area are close to 90 for highs...70 for lows and that's what you can expect this afternoon and tonight.
We do have a chance of getting some scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the HOT ones this week. Expect afternoon temps in the mid-90s...morning temps in the mid-70s.
Wednesday into Thursday bring a chance of showers, but that's about it for wet weather this week.
Our atmosphere is expected to dry out again just in time for the extended 4th of July weekend. Under clear to partly cloudy skies, look for highs Friday through Sunday near 90...morning temps in the mid to upper 60s.
So far meteorological summer has been kind to us in the rainfall department. I was just checking the month to date rainfall totals and it looks like all three official climate reporting locations will finish with above average totals. The latest June rain total for Anniston is 4.11” (0.31” above average), Tuscaloosa 5.15” (0.71” above average), and Birmingham 4.81” (0.75” above average). More showers and storms are on the map this afternoon with a greater concentration east of I-65. The storm activity will remain on the typical summertime schedule with a gradual weakening after sunset.
(Forecast surface temperatures for 3:30 p.m. on July 1st.)
HOTTER DAYS AHEAD: Tomorrow will be much like today with a decent coverage of storms in the afternoon hours. Most of the day will be hot and steamy with a mixture of clouds and sunshine. I can’t say the same for Tuesday due to a building ridge of high pressure. This system will set the stage for some very hot conditions with highs reaching the middle 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday. These will be the two hotter days of the week with heat index values nearing 100º. A shower or storm can’t be ruled out during the peak afternoon heating but the coverage should be very isolated.
ANOTHER INCREASE IN STORMS ON THURSDAY: A front is expected to drop in from the north on Thursday and this will bring another increase in the number of afternoon thunderstorms. I also think some storms could linger well into the evening on Thursday. The models are suggesting this front will settle south of I-20 on Friday. This scenario would set the stage for a nice start to our 4th of July with morning temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. The 4th is also looking quite seasonal with respect to afternoon storms, with a few isolated pop-ups south of I-20. At-least for now the forecast is in good shape for Thunder on the Mountain.
MONITORING THE TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center is keeping a very close eye on a disturbance about 230 miles east of St. Augustine, Florida. There is a good chance this could become the first Tropical Depression of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The latest model output suggests the system may drift southwest before making a turn north and should not enter the Gulf Of Mexico. Right now there is a 60% chance of development.
Be sure to join us tonight for an updated futurecast plus check on the topics!
The worst weather sets up across the Central Plains today with a moderate risk for severe storms across eastern Nebraska, west and central Iowa, northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. Multi-cell and super cell storms develop along and especially north of I-80 early this afternoon and into the evening hours. Storms will be capable of producing large hail and even isolated tornadoes initially. Damaging wind threat is also high, especially as the storms congeal as they move across Iowa. If you are taking flight today and headed into Kansas City, Omaha, Des Moines, St. Louis and or Chicago, delays are possible due to storms.
HERE'S A LOOK AT WHAT THE RADAR MIGHT LOOK LIKE TODAY:
Severe storms are not in the forecast today across Alabama but a few strong storms can't be ruled out this afternoon. We are tracking a complex of storms sliding eastward across Tennessee and this feature will bring a chance for showers and storms across northern and parts of central Alabama today. The best chance is across the dark shaded green area on the map below.
We'll see one more chance for showers and storms on Monday, especially in the morning hours before the jet stream shifts northward along with rain chances the rest of the upcoming week. Get ready to bake with feels like temperatures around 100° on Tuesday and Wednesday!