The final afternoon of 2014 has been a cold one with temperatures running about ten degrees below average. Another blanket of low clouds continues to slowly burn off but the clouds have helped to hold down temperatures today. So we already have a head start as far as colder weather goes. The clear sky will allow temperatures to fall quickly after sunset and I expect temperatures to tumble into the low to mid 30s by midnight. Plan on grabbing a heavy jacket before heading out the door tonight; lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.
NEW YEAR’S DAY: You can expect another dry day for tomorrow with clouds back on the increase during the afternoon. An area of low pressure will be lifting northward out of the Gulf Of Mexico across Louisiana this weekend. As this disturbance lifts northward beginning late tomorrow night, showers will be developing to our west and southwest. Some of this rainfall could reach parts of our area by midnight and this rain will increase in coverage throughout the morning hours on Friday. As the rain begins to fall into the colder and drier air mass over our area I expect temperatures to struggle to rise into the upper 40s. Right now it looks like Friday will be a cold, rainy, and dreary day.
(Simulated Radar 1:30 PM Friday)
HEAVY RAIN/STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY: The Friday rainmaker will cause a warm front to surge northward by Saturday morning. As this happens we could have some additional heavy rain and possibly a thunderstorm. We could also catch a break in the wet weather Saturday morning but I expect more heavy rain and storms later on Saturday as the cold front associated with this system advances eastward. This setup will bring another concern for flash flooding. The most unstable sector of this system should remain over far south Alabama. This part of the state will need to be on alert for the possibility of strong to severe storms. The cold front will make its push across the state early Sunday morning with rain tapering off from west to east.
(10AM Saturday Simulated Radar shows a break in the rain Saturday morning but more wet weather wil be approaching from the west as cold front advances east.)
NEXT WEEK: It looks like we will finally catch a decent break in the wet weather next week. Morning clouds will give way to sunshine on Monday with more below average temperatures. Once a minor disturbance passes to our north on Tuesday, it may quite windy as a large high pressure cell quickly becomes centered over Missouri. This large high pressure area should set the stage for colder and drier conditions for several days next week.
OUTBACK BOWL: We are still looking at some comfy weather for folks heading to Tampa for the Outback bowl. Temperatures will be rising into the mid 70s for highs with a partly to mostly cloudy sky.
SUGAR BOWL: Outside of the dome in New Orleans, Bama fans could deal with some wet weather. Our next rainmaker will begin to impact south Louisiana with showers possible and temperatures in the 50s.
BIRMINGHAM BOWL: Heavier rain could impact the Birmingham Bowl. Once again, we may catch a break in the steady rain during the morning but once the cold front begins its push eastward on Saturday the chance for rain and storms will increase. Hopefully we will see a delayed arrival in this cold front but for now I would plan on the possibility of heavier rain.
Be sure to join us beginning at 5 p.m. for all of the specifics including an updated look at the forecast radar for the weekend.
We are finally seeing some breaks in the clouds over our northwest counties as a deeper layer of cold/dry air enters the state. It is so nice to finally see a blue sky on our camera in Hamilton! A good portion of the area continues to deal with clouds but we should catch some breaks after lunchtime. The north wind will make for a very chilly afternoon, with feels like temperatures tumbling into the 30s after sunset.
In a December that has become characterized by an active jet stream that stays just to our north, another upper-level wave will approach on Saturday. The computer models differ on the location and intensity of the upper low and the associated surface low pressure area and cold front, but it looks like after a cold week, temperatures will rise rapidly by Friday and Saturday again here in Alabama.
It's too early to tell if there will be enough instability...Gulf waters are cool now and even if the system comes together, it could mainly be a heavy rain event over central Alabama like last week. But, there is a chance for bad weather this weekend.
The clearing line is making a slow push southward and we are finally seeing a blue sky over Marion County. A good portion of the area continues to deal with an overcast sky but I’m more confident we will catch some breaks later today. The north wind will make for a cold afternoon with “Feels Like” Temperatures only in the 40s! We will have some frosty rooftops tomorrow morning with temperatures at or below freezing.
A longer period of sunshine is expected for tomorrow but it is going to be another chilly day with highs in the 40s. If you have big New Years Eve plans I would bundle up! With a clear sky in place, temperatures will be tumbling quickly after sunset. You can expect mid 30s as the Moon Pie Drops at midnight. Lows tomorrow night will be below freezing.
ANOTHER BIG RAINMAKER: Clouds will be back on the increase late in the day on Thursday with a few showers possible by sunrise on Friday. I expect a cold rain to increase in coverage throughout the day on Friday as a low pressure system lifts in from the southwest. This system will pull warmer-moisture rich air northward and this could fuel some heavier rain and storm activity Friday night and into the day on Saturday. At this stage we can’t rule out a few strong storms but this will mainly be a heavy rain event for our area. The cold front associated with this system won’t push through until late on Saturday so the chance for rain will linger through most of the day. Newer data suggests that rain associated with this system will move out late Saturday night with lingering clouds on Sunday. Be sure to join us for more specifics on Good Day Alabama!
There is a lot of low level moisture around today and that means a mostly cloudy day for us. Some holes in the clouds are possible across far east Alabama, otherwise there is no short term signal for clearing. Visibility at the least has improved seeing the cloud on the ground has risen above ground level. Cloud cover is quite extensive and it looks like dry air won't start to take over until tomorrow.
The 12a NAM forecast sounding shows drying occurring tomorrow from about 925 mb and above but a moist layer still lingering near the surface up to 925 mb. Basically a moist layer from 1,000 to 2,500 feet. The 06z GFS on the other hand shows more mixing and the column drying and skies clearing completely. So it's a tough call and we have been burned by low level moisture sticking around and leading to a cloudy day despite models forecasting clearing skies. Overall, I think we'll start off cloudy every where and then see some afternoon clearing, especially northwest.