SATELLITE & RADAR & LIGHTNING 9AM IMAGE:
The activity through noon is primarily expected to remain below strong and severe limits. There is indication that we will see a lull in precipitation this afternoon from west to east and instability on the rise. The atmosphere in west Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas is already becoming increasingly unstable. The first intense storms of the day will fire across this region this afternoon and then spread eastward with time.
Simulated future radar data continues to show subtle fluctuations each run which makes it hard to time out and place the severe storm development. Because of the uncertainty, it's a good idea to be weather aware as early as 4pm though some of the strongest storms will likely arrive during the evening and overnight hours.
Data suggests the threat continuing into the early morning hours on Friday. Be sure to set up multiple was of getting watch and warning information.
At 11:30am, a new severe storm outlook will be posted by the Storm Prediction Center. The 8am outlook still shows the greatest chance for large hail and strong and potentially long lived tornadoes setting up to the west of the I-59/20 corridor (in orange) and a slightly lower threat points east (in yellow). This threat zone could easily change once new data is analyzed.
The more widespread impact from rounds of heavy showers and storms is the potential for flash flooding. A flash flood watch remains in effect through Friday evening. Widespread amounts ranging from 2" to 4" is likely with locally higher amounts possible.
I'm glancing over new data coming in and will have a better handle on timing, strength and location of afternoon storms on WBRC News at Noon.
Jill Gilardi WBRC First Alert Certified Meteorologist
Today is a First Alert Weather Day here at WBRC FOX6 for two rounds of impactful weather. The first thing we are tracking this morning is a cluster of rain and thunderstorms moving through much of Mississippi, into western Alabama. We have noticed a couple of lightning strikes on our SkyVision camera in Hamilton this morning as this wet weather has started to move in. For the next few hours, expect heavy rain to overspread the area from west to east, with rain moving in to the Birmingham metro area before 6:00 am. The risk of severe weather this morning is very low, if not non-existent, but we will have to deal with heavy rain... which may make driving conditions a little hazardous.
This rain shifts eastward through the morning, and we think that the rain begins to end from west to east across the area during the late morning and midday hours. It's likely that we will then see a break in the action for a few hours, and the sun may even come out at times, as drier air aloft overspreads the area. This will act to rapidly destabilize the air mass as temperatures warm quickly and dewpoints climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s... while at the same time, cold air in the upper levels will also overspread the region. We will then turn our attention to the west, as we expect scattered thunderstorms to rapidly develop over Mississippi, with storms moving northeastward into Alabama late in the day and during the evening. With the rapid destabilization of the atmosphere expected, some of these storms will quite possibly quickly go severe, and wind shear profiles later today and tonight are favorable for supercells and possibly tornadoes. Things still aren't all that clear cut, though, and the exact magnitude of this threat will hinge upon just how fast these morning storms move out, how much sun we get after they do, and where there may be any leftover boundaries for the second round of storms to interact with. Assuming we do have several hours to destabilize, and individual thunderstorms develop instead of a line, we can't rule out a strong tornado or two if these storms begin to interact with leftover boundaries.
We don't want you to panic or be overly worried, but we do ask that you pay attention. Go ahead and take the time this morning to review your severe weather safety plans, and make sure that you have more than one way to receive watches and warnings, in case they are issued later today and tonight. The threat of severe weather, possibly still including tornadoes, will continue through the evening hours... as the atmosphere will not stabilize after dark like it usually does. This means that you will need to remain alert to weather conditions even after the sun has gone down. More thunderstorms are possible tomorrow, especially over the southern counties in our coverage area, but the exact details of that all depend upon what happens later today and tonight.
Stay with WBRC and the First Alert Weather Team through the day for updated information on the severe weather threat.
Blog Severe Weather Analyst
WBRC First Alert Weather
Once again we're watching another Thursday for the possibility for severe storms. Weren't we just doing that last week? Fortunately, that system stayed confined to the south and we escaped the nasty weather. Tomorrow is also a far from clear-cut forecast, but we are seeing both indications of increasing instability and wind shear. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has "outlooked" the area for both an Enhanced and Slight Risk. We could see several rounds of significant weather with storms possible both during the morning and late afternoon.
What to Expect? When you get up early Thursday morning you will likely be dealing with heavy rain and thunderstorms. This will especially be the case for places west of I-65. Storms will likely arrive into West Alabama by 4am. We're already watching some pretty ugly weather right now in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas. Active weather will continue to our west tonight and gradually move into Alabama during the early morning hours. It is possible we could see a few severe storms near the Alabama/Mississippi line early Thursday morning. While the tornado risk would be low during the morning hours, it is not zero. We will be monitoring closely for gusty winds, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and an isolated tornado.
Models are suggesting a break in much of the rain between 10am and 4pm. If this happens, this would likely allow the atmosphere to become more unstable and increase our chances for late afternoon/evening severe thunderstorms.
Our RPM model really begins to fire storms up again after 4pm. These storms could pack a punch capable of damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and flash flooding. The greatest risk for tornado development would likely be west of I-65 and north of I-20/59.
Storms will likely decrease in their intensity after 8-9pm as they continue to shift eastward. I'm calling this a conditional severe weather event. While models are indicating some higher severe weather parameters, it is possible additional rainfall could result in more stability and a decreased severe weather risk during the afternoon Thursday. This is a system to watch and we'll see how the atmosphere behaves after the first round of precipitation early Thursday. Speaking of rainfall, that's another concern. I'm seeing some models including the RPM suggest over five inches of rain in places by 6am Friday. If that model is correct, we will likely see some flash flooding.
In the meantime, remain weather aware tomorrow and close to weather information with the WBRC First Alert Weather app.
WBRC First Alert Chief Meteorologist
NOTHER COOL START: There is still a chill in the air this morning but we will enjoy another nice warm-up today with highs in the middle 70s. Some high clouds will be moving across west Alabama this morning and these clouds will increase throughout the day across our area. We could see a few isolate showers to the west during the late afternoon and evening. Most areas will remain dry through the evening hours.
FIRST ALERT UPDATE FOR STORMS TOMORROW: Heavier rain and storms will be possible during the early morning hours tomorrow and this stormy weather will continue throughout mid to late morning. We may see a few strong to severe storms in the morning so stay weather aware and keep First Alert Weather app nearby. If a storm developed it would be capable of producing damaging straight-line winds and isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has far West Alabama highlighted in an enhanced severe risk with a slight risk for the remaining counties in our area. There are still indications we will see another increase in rain and storms tomorrow night so rain amounts should easily top the two inch mark in some areas. The rain and storms will be exiting East Alabama early Friday morning with gradual clearing.
WEEKEND FORECAST: Our forecast for the weekend is looking great! We will have sunshine returning for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. The tumble in temperatures will be more noticeable on Saturday, with highs in the middle 60s. Temperatures will tumble into the lower 40s Sunday morning. I will have more specifics in our forecast on Good Day Alabama this morning. Have a great Wednesday!
WBRC First Alert Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
ANOTHER PICTURE-PERFECT AFTERNOON: Temperatures are making a nice recovery across our area today and we should enjoy a nice warm-up into the 70s this afternoon. The sky will remain sunny with a mostly clear sky this evening. Temperatures will tumble into the low 50s and upper 40s tonight so it will be chilly during the early morning. Tomorrow will be another dry day for most of us with a pleasantly warm afternoon.
FIRST ALERT FOR STRONG STORMS THURSDAY: The weather setup will be quickly changing tomorrow night as moisture surges in from the southwest. We will begin to see clouds with showers possible over West Alabama during the evening. It looks like we will be seeing a round of heavy rain and storms early Thursday and then we could catch a break before another round of rain and storms moves in Thursday night. Right now we can’t rule out a strong to severe storm, especially south of I-20. The primary impact however will be heavy rain for most areas. The Storm Prediction Center has our southern areas highlighted in a slight risk zone for severe weather Thursday. So stay weather aware as this system materializes over the coming days.
THE WEEKEND: The rain will be tapering off during the early morning hours on Friday with cooler and drier air returning for the start of the weekend. We should enjoy some peaks of sunshine late Friday and also into the day on Saturday. Sunday also looks dry but some data shows a disturbance to the south bringing clouds and possibility an isolated shower late Sunday night. I will have an updated on the weekend plus the big Thursday rainmaker coming up at NOON on WBRC. You can also watch our LIVE Stream via the WBRC First Alert Weather App.
WBRC First Alert Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
A CHILLY START THIS MORNING: The chill will be in the air when you step out the door this morning but temperatures will rebound nicely today with highs in the low 70s. It won’t be quite as cold tonight with lows near 50° under a mostly clear sky.
FIRST ALERT FOR STORMS THURSDAY: Tomorrow will be another dry day for the most part but clouds will be on the increase with the chance for showers and storms returning to the state tomorrow night. Right now it looks like most of our area will remain dry through late evening but we could begin to see some shower development to the far west. The far southwest corner of the state including places like Mobile could see a strong to severe storm tomorrow. The risk for a strong to severe storm will build further northward to include the southern part of our area on Thursday. Right now we’re expecting a couple of rounds of rain and storms. The first wave of rain and storms will impact the area beginning early Thursday and then we will catch a break before another round of rain and storms arrives Thursday night. The sever threat looks limited but a severe storm can’t be ruled out to the south. Keep in mind if a severe storm develops it would be capable of producing damaging straight-line winds or an isolated tornado. The primary impact out of this system will be heavy rain for most of our area.
THE WEEKEND: The rain will be tapering off during the early morning hours on Friday with cooler and drier air returning for the start of the weekend. We should enjoy some peaks of sunshine late Friday and also into the day on Saturday. Sunday also looks dry but some data shows a disturbance to the south bringing clouds and possibility an isolated shower to the south late Sunday night. Be sure to join us for updates on Good Day Alabama. You can also watch our LIVE Stream on the WBRC First Alert Weather App. Have a great Tuesday!
WBRC First Alert Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
SUNNY WEATHER RETURNS: The morning clouds have given way to a beautiful Monday across Alabama. The pleasant weather will continue through the remainder of the day, with high temperatures nearing 70°. We will have a big cool down this evening with temperatures tumbling into the low to mid 50s by 9PM. Temperatures tomorrow morning will bottom out near 41° and we could easily see some upper 30s in areas north of I-20. The good news is that we will have more beautiful weather tomorrow with another big temperature rebound into the lower 70s.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY: Clouds will be on the increase Wednesday as a southwest flow aloft returns to the state. Most of the day will be dry; however, we will likely begin to see rain during the evening over West Alabama. This rain is expected to increase in coverage through late night from southwest to northeast and there may be some thunderstorm activity. A cold front associated with this next system will enter the picture on Thursday and this will bring a focus for another round of rain and storm activity. The primary impact out of this system will be lots of rain due to the water loaded atmosphere. However, we are seeing some indications in new model data that wind shear parameters could ramp up by midday on Thursday. So a strong to severe storm can’t be ruled out. This system will begin to exit the state early Friday morning with rain ending from West to East.
THE WEEKEND: Another shot of cool/dry air will arrive this weekend with sunshine returning for both Saturday and Sunday. In fact, this weekend will mark the beginning of a dry stretch that should last through Wednesday of next week. We will have an extended forecast update at Noon on WBRC and you can also watch LIVE via the First Alert Weather App.
WBRC First Alert Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
A cold front continues to slide eastward across the state with colder and drier air filtering in behind it. Clearing skies, lighter winds and a cooler and drier air mass will lead to temperatures dropping below normal by Tuesday morning. Normal low is 46° and I'm expecting lows in the lower 40s. Areas north of I-20 could easily fall into the upper 30s. You'll want to shift the thermostat from A.C. to heat. I know I always seems to forget and if you are like me, you'll probably need to set a reminder on your phone so you don't wake up shivering.
And you know that in a couple of days we will be turning the A.C. on, right? lol
Got to love spring in Alabama!
Jill Gilardi WBRC First Alert Certified Meteorolgist