NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM, ALABAMA ISSUED A SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK:
The spring flood outlook calls for an above normal potential for river flooding in Central Alabama.
Historically, river flood season begins in early to mid January and ends in late April.
Streamflows are currently running at or above normal over all of Central Alabama.
Medium and long range model data continues to show indication of wet weather through April.
That will mean the number of river floods and the magnitude of those river floods will be higher than typical through April.
Winter rainfall across Central Alabama has generally averaged between fifteen and twenty five inches.
Location Rainfall December through February
Hamilton 25.43 inches
Jasper 20.22 inches
Birmingham 21.27 inches
Tuscaloosa 17.87 inches
Anniston 18.13 inches
Demopolis 20.59 inches
Selma 21.18 inches
Montgomery 24.79 inches
Alexander City 22.55 inches
Troy 20.27 inches
The rainfall pattern this winter has resulted in soil moisture profiles that are wetter than normal.
Calculated soil moisture percentiles from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) through the end of February are running 40 to over 80 percent of normal
across Central Alabama.
Most reservoirs remain near their target pools for this time of year.
However, there are some reservoirs that are above their target pools and continue to release water to try and get back to the target pools for the current date.
This is one more factor that has kept streamflows at or above normal in most areas.
The latest medium range meteorological models indicate a continued wet weather pattern with rainfall events impacting the area once or twice a week.
The latest CPC 8 to 14 Day Outlook is indicating above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures through mid March.
As far as longer term precipitation outlooks, based on the CPC Long Lead Outlook, ENSO (El Nino) will continue to have an impact on rainfall in the southeast.
The latest CPC 3-Month Outlook indicates above normal chances of precipitation across most of the southeast.
For detailed web information concerning river stages and forecasts
for Central Alabama...go to:
For Precipitation Analysis...go to:
For Precipitation Forecasts...go to;
Questions/Comments?...Contact Roger McNeil, Service Hydrologist by
e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org or by phone at 205-664-3010.