We need rain and at least in the short-term I don't see any significant changes in this "dry spell". Our first opportunity at rain will likely come on Saturday. The NAM and GFS are both indicating a chance for rain in the northern portion of our viewing area. An approaching trough of low pressure should kick off a few showers and thunderstorms mainly north of I-20 on Saturday. The best chances for showers include Marion, Winston, Cullman, Blount, Etowah, and Cherokee Counties. However, don't get your hopes up. I think rain chances will still be fairly low.
This is model output from the NAM for Saturday afternoon. Rain chances look to be increasing for the Alabama game in Knoxville. Make sure you have the rain gear if you have football plans.
Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to upper 80s over the weekend with unseasonably warm temperatures remaining in the forecast next week. We're looking at a stronger system coming in late next week. We could see more significant rainfall by Saturday, October 22. Again, the better chances for rain look to be mainly north of I-20.
If you're wondering about Fall temperatures, I don't think we'll see any dramatically cooler temperatures anytime soon. The Climate Prediction Center is indicating above average temperatures through the next month. Don't turn off the AC just yet.
We'll keep our eye on the rain chances. The counties most in need of rain include Jefferson, Shelby, St. Clair, and Calhoun.
WBRC First Alert Chief Meteorologist