WBRC First Alert Weather

A Cool Change Coming This Week, But Little Rain Expected

It's Halloween and we're likely to see again record-breaking temperatures. It isn't a trick when I tell you the forecast high temperature today is 89 degrees. The record high for today is 87 degrees. The last time we saw temperatures this extreme this time of year was back in 1984.

Big Changes Coming:  We have a powerful cold front set to arrive this week and it will bring a major change in temperatures (at least temporarily). The bad news is the front will produce little rainfall. The front will arrive on Thursday and we would see a few isolated showers. Rain chances will be less than 20-percent much like the last several fronts. One of those situations where we see rain to the west and it just "magically" disappears once it arrives in Alabama. The front is projected to be just to our west on Thursday morning.

Expect clouds to increase on Thursday as the front tracks across the area. Highs will reach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. By late Thursday night, expect clearing skies, breezy conditions, and a good dose of cooler air. High pressure will build across the area Friday and hold firm through the weekend. Expect temperatures to reach the mid 70s Friday afternoon.

Weekend Forecast: If you have outdoor plans this weekend, the weather will be perfect. You will likely need a light jacket during the morning hours with lows in the mid 40s. Temperatures during the afternoon will reach the lower to mid 70s both for Saturday and Sunday.

What about significant rainfall? That's the question everyone is asking. It has been over 40 days since most of us have received any measurable rainfall. It is possible we could see some rainfall around November 9th and 10th. It is too early to say how much, but I certainly don't see a drought-busting rain setting up anytime soon. We'll keep you updated on any changes in the forecast.

Have a great Monday and Happy Halloween!

J-P Dice
WBRC First Alert Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Still dry and warm

We begin Halloween morning under clear skies with temps for most in the 50s.

Today should see mostly sunny skies again...highs near 88-degrees...and SW winds around 5 mph.

Tonight should continue to be mostly clear...with lows near 61...and calm winds.

This evening's trick-or-treat forecast looks nice for our little monsters, lol.

There are no big changes in our weather this week. A ridge of high pressure continues to bring us unseasonably warm and dry conditions.

A frontal boundary is expected to move through Thursday, but it is only expected to bring us a slight (20-percent) chance of rainfall.

What we will probably see Thursday is a temporary increase in cloud cover. Slightly cooler air is expected to follow the frontal passage for Friday through the weekend.

I hope you have a safe and happy Halloween.

Mickey Ferguson, WBRC First Alert weather

More record setting heat, cooler air arrives next weekend

Don’t put away the summer clothes just yet! We are experiencing a record setting wave of warm weather that will last through first of November. Today we set and tied many record highs in the state, and there is a good chance we will set records on Halloween. In fact, after cooling into the 50s tomorrow morning, temperatures will quickly rebound, with some areas reaching 90° tomorrow afternoon. Sunset time for Halloween will be 5:55 PM and as the trick-or-treaters hit the streets, temperatures will be tumbling into the low 60s.

DROUGHT UPDATE: According to the latest drought monitor, the most severe category of drought intensity has spread west into Shelby and Jefferson County. The entire area will continue to deal with an increasingly severe drought situation through this week and possibly next week. A cold front will be impacting the area on Thursday and this system may bring a few sprinkles, or a stray shower. However, most areas will remain dry. Our next best opportunity for rain may arrive with a storm system within the November 12th through 14th timeframe.

BIG TEMPERATURE CHANGE LATE WEEK: While the A/C may be busy for the start of the week, there is a good chance we will be using the heater later in the week. After the frontal passage on Thursday, a more seasonal fall air mass will settle in, with lows in the 40s and highs in the 70s for Saturday and Sunday. I will have more specifics on this cool down after the World Series on WBRC. By the way, next Sunday we "Fall Back" to standard time. The time change happens at 2AM. Have a great evening!

WBRC First Alert Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
Twitter @weswyattweather
Facebook.com/weswyattfox6
wwyatt@wbrc.com
AMS Certified

Pattern changes ahead excite me!

So every morning that I get up, I review the latest model data.  I have consistently seen for a week now that the pattern starts to break down around the 4th of November.  Right now, the jet stream ridge has set up over The South and this hot, record breaking and dry pattern looks to remain through Thursday.

As mentioned the pattern breaks down meaning dips or troughs in the jet stream move over different areas like The South and ushers in cooler air.  So the first thing we will notice is not rain with the changing jet stream, but changes with our temperatures.  A few showers may accompany the passing front late week but moisture will remain on the low end side.  We can anticipate cooler weather going into next weekend.

 So everyone has been asking us when are we going to get rain?  Well, here's the kind of jet stream pattern we need to develop in order to get some.  We need it to dip in such a way that it draws up Gulf moisture in advance.  This may happen by mid-November.  

 We need a mid-latitude cyclone to form in the Midwest and track eastward.  Now if this set up were to occur, severe weather might accompany it, especially in the Midwest.  Notice the convection produced when you have a jet stream like this occur.

I just had to share my weather excitement with you all.  It inspired this blog post.  This is why I love working in active weather zones and not in say dry climates.  This drought has really reminded me of that and I long for rain just as much as the earth does.  My heart breaks for the starving animals, the shrinking lakes and waterways etc.  So to see change ahead, to believe we will see some cooler weather and some rain, it just makes my day.

Have a wonderful Sunday,

Jill Gilardi WBRC First Alert Certified Meteorologist

Record setting heat through Halloween, another surge of colder air late next week

 

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES: We had so much fun participating in the McDonald’s Magic City Classic Parade earlier today. We were lined up and ready to go by 7AM and from the Storm Tracker we observed a 23º rise in temperatures in a matter of three hours. We will likely set record highs this afternoon as temps rise into the middle to upper 80s. The sky will remain sunny, with a clear sky tonight. The dry air will allow for another big drop in temperatures this evening, with lows in the 50s. Once again, avoid burning this weekend due to the continuing drought and extreme dry pattern impacting our state. The wind will settle tonight, with a southwest breeze returning tomorrow. You can expect a similar weather setup for tomorrow, with highs once again approaching record territory.

(GFS Model valid for Noon Monday/Temps approaching 90º on Monday.)

ANY RAIN NEXT WEEK? The primary storm track will remain well north of Alabama as a high pressure ridge continues to dominate the region for the first half of next week. We will have more sunny weather through Tuesday, with unseasonably warm days. Trick-or-Treaters can expect a dry and comfortable evening for Halloween. The flow pattern will become more southerly on Wednesday as another cold front approaches the state. This will make for milder night’s, which will help lower evaporation rates; however, we won’t see enough moisture and lift to produce wet weather across our area. Thursday’s have been the popular day for cold fronts lately but unfortunately, like the past couple of fronts, the only real noticeable change will involve temperatures. A dry northerly flow will take over again on Friday, with highs in the 70s and lows back in the 40s for next weekend.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: In the long range, it looks like we will see another Thursday frontal passage during the first week of November. However, this front also looks to produce little to no rain. We are seeing early indications of a more southerly tracking system for the start of the second week of November. This system would be our next best chance for beneficial rain. This is still a long ways off and a lot could change, hopefully for the better! We will continue to pass along frequent updates as new data rolls in. Have a great evening and check in with us after the World Series Game for an update tonight on WBRC.

WBRC First Alert Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
Twitter @weswyattweather
Facebook.com/weswyattfox6
wwyatt@wbrc.com
AMS Certified

FIRST ALERT: Colder pattern by next weekend

First record temperatures as the hot and dry weather pattern persists.

DAY:                   LOCATION:                  RECORD HIGH/DATE:

Today                  Birmingham                      86° in 1900

Saturday             Birmingham                      86° in 1984

Sunday                Birmingham                      86° in 1984

Halloween          Birmingham                      87° in 1984

Our first push of cooler air arrives late next week as the hot weather pattern starts to break down.  There's a slight chance for rain.

An even more significant dip in the jet stream and change in the temperature pattern looks to arrive next weekend.

We'll continue to update you regarding this upcoming change and will have more details regarding temperatures and rain chances at a later time.

Thanks,

Jill Gilardi WBRC First Alert Certified Meteorologist

We begin our last Friday for October 2016 with mostly clear skies. Temps this morning started out in the 50s to low 60s.

Look for mostly sunny skies this afternoon...highs near 86...and winds becoming northerly around 5 mph.

Tonight should be mostly clear...lows should be around 58...with calm winds.

We head into another Fall weekend with dry and unseasonably warm temperatures. Under mostly clear skies expect highs in the upper 80s...and lows near 58-degrees.

Halloween Monday looks to be toasty as well with morning temps near 57...and highs near 87.

Next week looks to be about the same. Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies next week, expect highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s.

I hope you have a nice weekend!

Mickey Ferguson, WBRC First Alert weather

 

Not much rain at all

We begin the day with overcast skies and just a few light isolated showers.

While we have a slight chance of seeing showers today in our neighborhoods, the best chance for the state will be into the northwestern corner. With mostly cloudy skies expect a 20-percent chance of rain...highs in the low 80s...and sw winds around 5 mph.

Our skies should be clearing overnight...with lows dropping close to 60...and light winds.

The extended forecast remains rather parched and our drought emergency continues. Look for dry weather for the next 7-days. Under mostly clear skies, highs are expected to remain in the 80s...and lows in the 50s.

Our next best chance of rain may not come until the end of next week, but I wouldn't get your hopes up too much for a lot of rainfall with the next system either.

I'm sorry. :(

Have a nice Thursday!

Mickey Ferguson, WBRC First Alert weather

Comparing The 2016 Drought Monitor With 2007

WBRC First Alert Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
Twitter @weswyattweather
Facebook.com/weswyattfox6
wwyatt@wbrc.com
AMS Certified

Not much relief in sight

We begin our hump day with increasing clouds and a lot of temperature variety.

After reaching a high of 86-degrees yesterday in Birmingham, 13-degrees above the norm, we are expecting another warm dry day again today.

Look for mostly clear to partly cloudy skies today, highs in the low 80s, and south winds at 5-10 mph.

Tonight should see increasing clouds...lows in the low 60s.

There is only a slight chance of a drop or two in our forecast for tomorrow. Other than that our forecast remains rather parched in the extended outlook.
We still have warm, dry weather in the forecast for late in the week and going into the weekend. If you do want some hope, I will say that our long range models are hinting at a couple of drops of rain for November 6th...and i'm only talking about a few drops, that's it...sorry, don't kill the messenger.

I hope you have a nice day otherwise.

Mickey Ferguson, WBRC First Alert weather