So every morning that I get up, I review the latest model data. I have consistently seen for a week now that the pattern starts to break down around the 4th of November. Right now, the jet stream ridge has set up over The South and this hot, record breaking and dry pattern looks to remain through Thursday.
As mentioned the pattern breaks down meaning dips or troughs in the jet stream move over different areas like The South and ushers in cooler air. So the first thing we will notice is not rain with the changing jet stream, but changes with our temperatures. A few showers may accompany the passing front late week but moisture will remain on the low end side. We can anticipate cooler weather going into next weekend.
So everyone has been asking us when are we going to get rain? Well, here's the kind of jet stream pattern we need to develop in order to get some. We need it to dip in such a way that it draws up Gulf moisture in advance. This may happen by mid-November.
We need a mid-latitude cyclone to form in the Midwest and track eastward. Now if this set up were to occur, severe weather might accompany it, especially in the Midwest. Notice the convection produced when you have a jet stream like this occur.
I just had to share my weather excitement with you all. It inspired this blog post. This is why I love working in active weather zones and not in say dry climates. This drought has really reminded me of that and I long for rain just as much as the earth does. My heart breaks for the starving animals, the shrinking lakes and waterways etc. So to see change ahead, to believe we will see some cooler weather and some rain, it just makes my day.
Have a wonderful Sunday,
Jill Gilardi WBRC First Alert Certified Meteorologist