(SPC Outlook Monday)
FIRST ALERT FOR STRONGER STORMS MONDAY: We’re monitoring a very active and complex weather setup for the start of 2017. We started off the day with a mixture of light rain and sleet. Now we’ve transitioned to all rain and this wet weather will continue through the overnight hours. At last check, temperatures at most locations were in the 40s and temperatures will rise into the 50s overnight. The steadier rain looks to taper off to scattered showers during the first part of the day tomorrow but now forecast data suggests another surge of heavier rain and possibly a few storms for tomorrow afternoon. After this round of rain passes, we could have some foggy weather and a few lingering showers through early Monday morning. Then our attention will turn to yet another round of rain and storms for Monday afternoon and evening. This system has the potential to generate stronger and possibly severe storms. Temperatures will surge into the upper 60s and low 70s on Monday and we will be paying particularly close attention to an increasingly unstable air mass over south Alabama. It’s possible this warm/unstable sector could lift into our area; however, the forecast remains fluid. A cluster of rain and storms could develop near the coast and limit the instability. For now we will continue to highlight a limited risk for strong to severe storms for Monday afternoon (after 2PM), with the primary severe risk across southern locations.
(Forecast Radar Tonight 10:30PM)
(Forecast Radar Monday 3PM)
COLDER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK/POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER? The heavier rain will exit the region Monday night, with lingering clouds and a few showers on Tuesday. During this time another Arctic Blast will impact the country, with the leading edge of this colder air reaching our state on Wednesday. This will bring a chilly north wind, with temperatures tumbling into the 40s on Wednesday. The GFS forecast data shows a low pressure system developing over the Gulf of Mexico by Friday, with the possibility of light rain, possibly mixing with snow over northern areas Friday night and early next Saturday. However, other long range data shows a much drier scenario. So confidence levels at this time regarding winter weather remains low; however, we will need to watch this setup closely as most of our classic winter weather events typically result from Gulf Low setups. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the forecast and be sure to check the First Alert Weather App for frequent updates. I’ll have more thoughts on the long range forecast beginning at 9PM on WBRC. Happy New Year!
WBRC First Alert Meteorologist Wes Wyatt