We've already seen a few severe thunderstorms this morning because of a hail threat. Some of the storms this morning have been elevated and not surface based. The radar will be active today and we'll be watching closely. These are my thoughts about today's weather. We will see quite a bit of rain this morning, afternoon, and evening. Expect 1-3" of rainfall between this morning and late tonight. The severe weather threat will still remain largely confined to areas south of I-85 with a few stronger storms reaching as far north as I-20. The reason for this is instability: Most of the warm/moist air will remain south. This is also where we will still widespread thunderstorm development. This will limit the moisture return farther north.
High resolution models are indicating this scenario. Both the HRRR and the 4km NAM show the highest wind shear and instability remaining south.
These higher instability/shear values will keep the most dangerous weather south of I-85 and extending to the Gulf Coast. This means there is a greater chance for tornado development in this area. Keep this in mind if you're traveling south.
The counties with the greatest risk, locally, of seeing some severe storms include Greene, Hale, Bibb, Chilton, and Coosa Counties. Elsewhere, the threat is limited with the primary concerns hail, heavy rain, and gusty winds. The tornado risk will remain low, but not zero. We will monitor for any quick spin-up type tornadoes. Thunderstorm potential will continue through the evening hours decreasing late tonight.
Stay weather alert and have multiple ways to receive severe weather warnings including the First Alert Weather app.
WBRC First Alert Chief Meteorologist