I worked in Springfield, Missouri between 2005 to 2011 and during my time there I experienced an awful ice storm in January of 2007. I am talking about 2" of ice and days and weeks without power. While I don't see that much ice developing in SW Missouri on Friday, I do see enough ice to cause travel hazards and damage to trees and power lines that could result in power outages. It's still early out and things can and will likely change as we get closer to this potential ice event in Missouri on Friday.
Here is what the 18z NAM is showing at this point: Remember that amounts over .25" start to cause the bigger problems. Anything over .50" and the risk for tree and power line damage increases even more. Southeast Missouri looks to see the heaviest ice accumulation as of now. This zone could shift so keep up with the latest forecast through your local meteorologists and National Weather Service office in Springfield. I'll continue to keep an eye on things too.
Here is an overview for Springfield, MO: Time reads from right to left and the red bars represent freezing rain. The taller the bar then the more intense the rate of freezing rain. The data shows light freezing rain in the morning and heavy freezing rain in the afternoon before temperatures warm up enough that the rain no longer freezes on contact.
Here is another view of the data... the start of the freezing rain.... Low level moisture increases after midnight on Friday and the column eventually saturates and precipitation falls by mid-morning. The temperature line is in red and dew point is in green. If you follow it from ground up, you'll see it's below freezing at the surface and then above freezing higher up and that above freezing layer is called the warm nose. It's what causes the snow falling to melt and then freeze on objects in the shallow layer of freezing air at the surface.
Heavier precipitation arrives during the early afternoon hours in Springfield, MO according to this model run. The warm nose is really taking over at this point and the surface temperatures are starting to rise. There could be an 8-12 hour period of freezing rain before changing to rain. During that stretch of time on Friday morning, ice accumulation will be possible especially on elevated surfaces. Plan accordingly and remember to keep up with this evolving forecast. The precipitation type zone could shift and the heaviest ice accumulation zone could too.
Hope my Missouri followers are doing well,
Jill Gilardi WBRC First Alert Certified Meteorologist