A massive area of storms has been moving slowly along the Gulf Coast today, as we suspected was possible. This has helped to choke off the northward flow of moisture into central Alabama. The storms to our south are moving NE, and will affect Birmingham metro, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston over the next hour, making the rush hour wet. But, these storms are not severe, just mainly producing a lot of heavy rain and some lightning. Current dewpoints (below) are only in the lower 60s, with clouds our temperatures are only around 75, and this combination has not lead to explosive instability over central Alabama for severe thunderstorms so far.
As the rain cools the air more, it will make it even more stable as the line of storms along the front moves through later tonight. Those storms are in western Mississippi now. They should move through Birmingham between 9 pm and midnight, and may produce lightning and strong winds. I suppose a weak tornado is possible somewhere in central Alabama, but the threat is low given the stable air and the lack of significant wind shear.
So, keep an eye on the weather tonight, but it does not look like it will be a big deal.
Dr. Tim Coleman