So we look at the dew point temperature as not only a measure of moisture in the air but also comfort. The lower the dew point, the drier the air. Dew points are forecast to once again hang out in the upper 50s and lower 60s which is great for our hair and body comfort.
What you'll tend to notice is that when the dew point climbs, the rain chance does the same. Moisture is just one of the ingredients needed for rain and storms to form. If you don't have moisture, clouds can't form. When you have abundant moisture combined with lift in the atmosphere, you get showers and storms to form. That's exactly what's going to happen between Thursday and Saturday.
STRONG STORM THREAT ANALYSIS:
Instability increases on Thursday which means a few strong storms will be possible. Primarily the kind that can produce wind gusts over 40 mph, intense clouds to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall. The greatest instability looks to set up as of now across north Alabama with CAPE values around 3,000 j/kg.
On Friday, the stronger instability shifts southward along with better wind shear for strong to severe storms. I think storms on Friday will be more organized and if trends continue, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Storm Prediction Center issue a slight risk for severe storms. What happens on Friday afternoon depends on the evolution of what happens on Thursday into Friday morning. If clouds linger during the day then instability won't be as high, but areas that see a lot of sunshine will see the best chance for severe weather. CAPE values are up to 4,000 j/kg across Mississippi which is high instability.
Wind shear in the atmosphere on Friday will equal more organized storms and perhaps a few rotating updrafts. Storms will be primarily capable of producing wind gusts over 60 mph and perhaps hail up to 1" diameter. Tornado threat looks low at this time. We are still several days away and a lot can change between now and then. Timing and strength could easily fluctuate. Check back for additional updates this week.
On Saturday, a cold front pushes south and sends the greatest instability and storm threat that direction too. If you have Gulf Coast plans, you should pay close attention to the forecast. A cold front means comfy air returns next weekend.
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist