KEEP THIS IN MIND WHILE READING THIS: Forecast accuracy decreases after 3 days and especially after 7 days, though data goes out some 15 days. Looking that far out, we focus on the bigger picture and trends. Long range data suggests a more active jet stream pattern setting up, especially during the first week of October. Again, this may or may not happen but something we will keep an eye on closely.
Here's what caught my attention 1st:
- Jet stream digging southward across the Intermountain West
- Short wave trough across parts of the Midwest
- Other parameters indicate strong or severe storms possible across the Midwest between Oct 3-5th
500 MB WINDS: SAT, OCT 3RD
- Strong storms may impact parts of the Tennessee River Valley
- Perhaps as far south as Alabama (especially east)
- And potentially bringing strong storms to the Mid-Atlantic states by the 6-7th
In the wake of this system, if this jet stream pattern does unfold, some frosty air would impact the Upper Midwest.
Primary severe weather season across the United States is considered to be in the spring, more particularly the months of March through May. However, what most people don't realize is that Alabama also has a secondary severe weather season in the fall.
Fall severe weather season typically runs from the beginning of November until mid-December. Occasionally, it may begin in late October or last until late December. Just like in the spring, there are some years where we may be lucky enough to experience a severe weather "drought" of sorts in the fall.
On the other hand, we may see our fair share of tornadoes and severe weather in the fall.
So just stay weather aware as we potentially enter a more active fall weather pattern!
WBRC First Alert Meteorologist Jill Gilardi