There is a disturbance at mid-levels of the atmosphere moving through and we are still on the "lift" side of the system. We saw one round of showers and storms move through early this morning and now we continue to track a second round developing in its wake. The most accurate depiction of what the future radar might look like is from our VIPIR radar system. Too bad it only goes out 1 hour into the future.
Look at the HRRR simulated radar for the same time period. You'll notice a stark difference between the two. So yea, I don't have much reliable forecast data to go off of and that's when the true brains of a meteorologist are tested. ;)
So I think this area of shower and spotty storm development will continue to impact the current zone and points southeastward the rest of the morning. If it holds together and doesn't fizzle out like model data indicates, then it has a chance to strengthen and be ongoing to the south of I-20. I'll continue to monitor radar trends and post another update if that happens. It will be moving into a more unstable air mass so that's why I think the batch could linger and even strengthen.
Now this afternoon, drier air aloft will build in and I don't see a high rain chance setting up but more of a low end chance with isolated to widely scattered pop ups possible. I'll have a better handle on the afternoon set up by 11:30am once all of the latest model data comes in.
That's the weather scoop,
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist