WBRC Weather

Tonight's Thunderstorm Forecast

I think it's just as critical to tell you when the weather is not going to be bad. There's lots of talk on the street about severe storms tonight. I think most of that comes from the fact it's Winter and we've had temperatures in the lower 80s today. There are so many variables that go into severe weather development.

I'll explain why I don't see anything major with this system. We have a strong "CAP". That's essentially a lid on the atmosphere. It's an inversion which means the temperatures are warming higher in the atmosphere rather than cooling. This makes it almost impossible to see storms without something breaking the cap. The almost unidirectional wind shear is keeping the severe threat down as well - directional shear brings tornadoes. With unidirectional winds we may likely get some very high wind gusts, but the tornado threat here is going to remain very low.

So will we even see thunderstorms? Yes, I think we'll see a few directly ahead of the cold front. The front will provide enough forcing to least produce some stronger storms. The primary theat is high winds and hail. The peak time for scattered storm development is between 3am and 7am. You will hear some rumbles of thunder. Weather updates will be provided at www.myfoxtracker.com.

Winds should switch around out of the northwest during the afternoon providing some colder and drier air. Expect highs to only reach the mid 50s with winds over 30mph. It is going to be cold Saturday morning with lows near freezing. Expect plenty of sunshine over the weekend.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: jpdice_Fox6

Warm and Windy Thursday...

It's feeling like Spring today with temperatures expected to soar into the upper 70s this afternoon.   Visible satellite imagery is showing sunshine across much of the state.

A strong surface cold front is parked to the west across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.  Temperatures behind the front are about 15 degrees cooler.  The front is not expected to clear the state until early Friday morning.  A strong southerly wind at between 20-25mph is transporting warm moist air.  This will increase instability.  The main dynamics with this system are expected to stay to the north across the Ohio Valley.

What about a severe weather threat?  We've got a strong capping inversion in place this afternoon and evening.  It's going to be tough to break the cap.  The inversion may even limit our rain chances tonight.  In fact, I think we will see some areas with not a drop of rain.  I've reduced the overall rain chances quite a bit.  Our high resolution Microcast model is still indicating the best chance of severe weather across the Tennessee Valley and northward to Tennessee and Kentucky.  I'd particularly pay close attention to Cullman, Blount, Etowah, and Cherokee Counties in the Fox 6 viewing area.

Primary Threat:  We will be watching closely for damaging winds and with the colder air aloft we can easily get some hail with any thunderstorm that develops.  It's quite likely a few storms may produce winds over 60mph.

Timing:  I think we need to really start watching this system after 8pm and through perhaps midnight.  The instability should disappear considerably after midnight.  Overnight lows will fall into the upper upper 40s and lower 50s.

It's possible we could still see some thunderstorms early Friday morning with clearing skies by Friday afternoon.  Temperatures will be considerably cooler during the afternoon with highs around 60.

We'll keep you updated through the afternoon here on Fox 6.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: jpdice_Fox 6

 

Severe Potential Today...

This Storm Prediction Center is considering a watch for much of North Alabama.  I think the best chance for stronger storms will be in the Tennessee Valley (including Huntsville).  We may see a significant threat in Southern Middle Tennessee as well.  We will monitor Marion, Winston, Cullman, Blount, Etowah, and Cherokee Counties.  The primary threat is hail and gusty winds.


We'll keep you posted throughout the afternoon here on Fox 6.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: jpdice_Fox6

Announcement Coming Tomorrow - Free Statewide Alert Service

We will be able to share more information with you coming up tomorrow.  But, this is the announcement from Governor Bentley's Office.

"Governor Bentley will hold a news conference Wednesday in Huntsville to announce a new statewide severe weather alert service. The news conference will begin at 1 p.m. and you will be able to watch it live on our website, MyFoxAL.com. Just look for the link at the top of our website shortly before 1 p.m. Wednesday."

Warmer Temperatures and Watching Thursday

It was a gorgeous Monday with just a few high clouds today.  Temperatures reached the lower 60s.  Our next system will move through during the overnight.  Don't expect much more than a few clouds and perhaps as brief shower.  The best chance of rain will likely be closer to the Tennessee line.  We'll see a good return of warm air and moisture over the next several days.

Expect temperatures to climb into the mid 60s Tuesday.  We will likely see cloudy skies to start the day, but clearing is expected by the afternoon.  Temperatures Wednesday will be even warmer with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Severe Threat: I'm watching Thursday very closely.  Highs during the afternoon will reach the lower 70s.  It's quite possible we could see some strong to severe storms in the state after sunset.  I'm not overly concerned about our immediate viewing area right now.  I think the greatest threat for severe storms will impact the Tennessee Valley to the west in Memphis and even the Nashville area.  The highest wind shear and instability will remain to our west and north.  In fact, I have significant concern for those areas.  We could see stronger tornadoes develop.


We will likely see a good threat (mainly west of I-65) of strong winds and hail.  Strong to severe storms will develop ahead of the front and will likely weaken as they move east. The system will exit by Friday with colder temperatures arriving just in time for the weekend.

Sunshine is likely for the weekend with highs only in the 50s and morning lows int the lower to mid 30s.

This is Severe Weather Awareness Week.  It's a good time to make sure your NOAA weather radio is working properly with fresh batteries.  I have posted a video that will help with the programming.  You will see the video in the top right corner of this page.In addition, I recommend everyone have a severe weather plan that is ready to go when a warning is issued.

Have a great evening!

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: jpdice_Fox6

 

11:40 AM Update: Heavier Rain Now Entering The State

Current analysis shows the surface low along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. The greatest low level instability remains just east and southeast of the lows center. At the time of this update a line of severe thunderstorms was closing in on New Orleans, Louisiana. There have been reports of severe storm wind gusts associated with this line along with a couple of funnel cloud reports. These stronger storms are expected to remain south today. We will be keeping an eye on how the warmer sector of this system progresses northward during the evening hours tonight. There is still a slight risk that strong to severe storms may develop over south and southeast Alabama. The northern extent of this risk zone includes portions of Coosa, Tallapoosa, and Dallas Counties. This is basically going to be a big rainmaker for our area. The  steady rain shield has shifted into West Alabama. 

 

 Wes Wyatt-Fox 6 Meteorologist

Follow Me on Twitter@weswyattweather

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Strong and Dynamic System to Impact Alabama

Now that's a headline!  While we're enjoying some sunshine with temperatures in the 60s today -we have got a strong low that will track right across Central Alabama tomorrow.  The weather will begin to turn ugly Saturday.  We might escape most of the heavy rain during the morning, but if you have plans during the afternoon and evening let's hope they are inside.  This is one very wet system.  The rain will begin and likely stay with us through early Sunday.

Severe Threat:  This system will produce some severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, but that's likely to occur the closer you get to the Gulf Coast where the instability is going to be considerably higher.   Forecast models keep surface based instability almost non-existent here.  The severe threat will be Montogmery southward toward the coast and mainly during the late afternoon and evening.  In fact - I think we'll see so much development south of us - it may limit much of the action farther north.

Let me share with you an interesting chart I enjoy using to predict severe weather.  This chart based on the NAM overlays CAPE (instability) and Helicity (Wind shear).


We have a lot of wind shear here and that's because of the position of the deep low, but the instability just can't make it this far north.  The only exception to my forecast would be if the models are really out of whack and we get some decent periods of sunshine tomorrow.  Honestly, I do not think that will happen.  Temperatures will only reach the lower 60s tomorrow.  If you live on some of our southernmost counties - you should still pay attention to the weather if there are some minor changes. This includes Hale, Greene, Perry, Southern Chilton, Coosa, and Tallapoosa Counties.

My forecast for Saturday includes heavy rain beginning during the early afternoon and very wind conditions.  We'll likely see winds over 20mph or more as they low passing over.  Looks like some clearing by Sunday afternoon with highs only in the 50s.  Monday looks dry as well.

Have a great Friday!

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6 

 

Rain and Thunder Saturday

The rain moved out this morning and we're in between systems now.  We'll probably see some sunshine this afternoon with clearing later tonight.  Enjoy the mild temperatures with highs reaching around 68.  Looks like temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to mid 40s.  Friday will be beautiful with sunny skies and afternoon highs in the 60s.

Our next system rolls in beginning Friday night into Saturday.  Most of Friday evening should be dry, but we will see some clouds streaming in.  Rain begins in our western counties Saturday morning and becomes widespread during the afternoon and evening.  

The Storm Prediction Center has placed part of the state in a slight risk for severe storms.  In my opinion, instability will be very limited and the severe threat (if any) will remain isolated south of I-85 and toward the Gulf Coast.  Looks like we'll see mainly just rain with isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely reach between 58 and 60 Saturday afternoon.



The 12z NAM is squeezing out plenty of rain Saturday and is indicating the rain may likely stay with us through 8am Sunday.  Sunday afternoon I expect the sky to clear just a bit with temperatures in the lower 50s.  Monday looks dry with the return of rain Tuesday and Wednesday.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: jdice_Fox6 

 

Raycom Meteorologists from around Alabama

I had the opportunity to hang out with some of the finest weather folks in the state and good friends too. Governor Bentley signed a proclamation declaring next week severe weather awareness week and many meteorologists (both TV and government) were on-hand at the Capitol to be part of the signing. 

After the signing, Wes Wyatt and myself headed over to WSFA in Montgomery.  That's our Raycom Media sister station.  In the picture, Wes Wyatt from Fox 6, Brad Travis from WAFF in Huntsville, Rich Thomas from WSFA in Montgomery, myself, and Josh Johnson from WSFA in Montgomery.

Raycom Media and its stations provides updates to this weatherblog as well as weather coverage for most of the state of Alabama.

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @ jpdice_Fox6

 

A Break in the Rain

It seems our brief cold snap is over with temperatures climbing to near 70 by tomorrow.  For the rest of today - we can expect the clouds to linger with temperatures reaching the lower 50s.  The main weather issue tonight will be patchy fog developing after midnight.  Overnight lows will drop to around 39.  Sunshine returns on Wednesday and temperatures will skyrocket as a warm front lifts to the north.  We can expect a very comfortable Spring-like day.  Rain and storms will return to the forecast after 9pm.  There is a chance for a few strong storms near the Alabama/Mississippi stateline, but overall this system is very instability challenged.  While we have the shear with helicity values well over 400 - we're only see elevated CAPE at around 400 j/kg.

Our 12km VIPIR model is indicating most of the rain and storms will come through during the overnight hours.

The model predicts most of the rain will be over for Alabama by 11am Thursday.  We should see some clearing by Thursday afternoon.

Sunshine will return to the forecast on Friday with highs around 60s.  Right now - the weekend looks like a mixed bag with scattered clouds and a few showers possible.  But - it's certainly not a washout.

WEATHER RADIO WEDNESDAY:

We had another incredibly successful day in Center Point.  Over 600 NOAA weather radios were sold and hundreds others programmed.  We promised the people of Center Point we'd follow-up since we ran out of radios at the Walgreens last Wednesday.

Our next stop is Forestdale tomorrow.  We will be at the Walgreens located at 1151 Forestdale Blvd. from 7am until 6:30pm programming NOAA weather radios.  If you do not have a weather radio - you can purchase one inside the Walgreens for $29.99.  Come on out - we hope to see you and help you with your radio.  The weather should be great!

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6