WBRC Weather

Overnight Severe Threat?

We're watching the storms to our west very closely tonight.  It looks like we're seeing a considerable weakening as the storms track to the east.  With wind shear lacking, these storms will turn into primarily rain producers for Northwest Alabama.  In the Fox 6 viewing area, we will likely get some heavy rain, wind gusts over 20mph, and some lightning overnight.  The best chance for rain and storms will be Marion and Lamar Counties.

This is updated RPM model data for the overnight.

West Alabama will experience some rain and thunderstorms tomorrow morning, but the best chance of stronger storms will occur during the afternoon.  Let me stress - it looks like storms tomorrow will remain below severe limits.  We will have some thunder and lightning.


You'll see spotty showers and storms during the afternoon as a cool front nears the area. 


Temperatures tomorrow will reach the lower 80s with partly sunny skies.  Rain chances will taper off during the evening hours.  Looks like drier weather for Thursday and milder temperatures just in time for the Memorial Day Weekend.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Rain and Storms Likely Again Tomorrow

An upper-level trough will continue to make for some stormy weather this weekend.  The active weather should calm down tonight, but we'll see another round of scattered storms Saturday afternoon.  While we will see a few storms during the morning, the best chance for stronger storms will occur between 2pm and 6pm.  Our RPM model has a good breakdown of tomorrow's forecast.

Rain and storms will become a bit more widespread during the afternoon and primarily north of I-20.

Here's what we can expect: Hail and gusty winds will be the primary threats.  I would also anticipate frequent cloud to ground lightning.  The tornado threat will remain low, but I can't rule an isolated low-end tornado with this system.

Temperatures Saturday in West Alabama will reach the mid to upper 80s.  If you live east of I-65, temperatures will range from 80-83 degrees.

Sunday looks a bit drier with the best chance of rain and storms mainly in East Alabama through the morning and early afternoon.  Temperatures this weekend will reach the lower to mid 80s. Monday and Tuesday both look dry with plenty of sunshine expected both days.  Highs Monday will likely reach around 90 degrees.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 11pm

Turning Hot and Some Spotty Thunderstorms On Thursday

The ridge of high pressure that has brought triple digit temperatures to the Plains is moving our weay and it means business.  The temperature trend through next week will keep us in the mid 80s and possibly even the upper 80s by the end of the weekend.  The average temperature is 81 degrees.  I would expect areas in West Alabama to reach 90 by Sunday.

As far as rain goes on Thursday, our forecast model is predicting the best chance during the afternoon hours.  Most of the rain should track just to the north of Birmingham during the afternoon.  Some of the rain could begin as early as late morning, but most will move in during the afternoon.  I'm still not predicting a widespread rain-event.  We'll see an almost Summertime pattern of pop up thunderstorms.  No severe weather is expected with this next system. 

The weekend is still looking generally dry and warm.  Highs both Saturday and Sunday will reach the mid to upper 80s with a few showers/storms returning early next week.  I recommend you find a pool or perhaps make a trip to the beach.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Warmer Temps are Coming

A large dome of air pressure will control our weather over the next few days.  This will mean warm (if not hot temperatures) by Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 80s in a few parts of West Alabama.  A weak trough will track across the state on Thursday and this will bring clouds and a few showers to the area.  The good news - no severe weather is expected.  The weekend forecast looks like a winner with highs in the mid to upper 80s and little to no rain in the forecast.

The Hangout Music Festival is this weekend in Gulf Shores.  The forecast looks fantastic with only an occasional thunderstorm during the afternoon.  Highs will reach the upper 70s.

In the longer range forecast - we could see a few showers and storms next week.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Even Warmer Temperatures Coming

We're bracing for some rather warm temperatures tomorrow.  It's going to feel a lot more like May than the late Winter weather we've been feeling.  Expect overnight lows tonight in the upper 50s.  Highs will reach the mid 80s tomorrow afternoon.  These numbers are the lastest update from our in-house computer model.


We will see a few spotty showers and thunderstorms mainly north of I-20 during the afternoon.  It doesn't appear we'll see anything too organized or widespread.

The longer range forecast is still indcating a good chance of rain and thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday.  The models are still having some issues regarding timing.  It's possible we could see the system come through fairly quickly and clear out by noon Saturday.  The GFS model is showing the rain and clouds lingering through Sunday.  We'll keep you updated on the timing.  I don't think we'll see any widespread severe weather.  However, I do think a few storms south of I-20 could be on the strong side. 

The forecast is looking dry with sunnier weather on Sunday.  It appears we'll continue with this sunny weather pattern through early next week.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s.  The morning lows will be a bit chilly early next week with lows in the 40s.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Temperatures Climbing and Rain for Weekend

We'll start the morning off with patchy fog and chilly temperatures.  Expect lows in the lower 70s with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s during the early afternoon.

Forecast models are indicating rain chances climbing slightly by Thursday with the best chances of rain coming Friday and Saturday.  It's possible we could see a few strong to severe storms ahead of the weekend cold front.  If you have plans Friday, the best chance of rain will come during the late afternoon and evening and last through Saturday.

Sunday appears to be a different story with mostly sunny skies and somewhat cooler temperatures.  Highs will reach the lower to mid 70s during the afternoon.  Morning low temperatures will continue to remain in the upper 40s during the early week.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

 

River Flooding Along Coosa

The heavy rainfall this weekend along with the heavy rainfall this afternoon is resulting in some minor flooding along the Coosa River.  Flood stage was 510.7ft Monday and flood state is 511ft.  Flooding will impact Calhoun, Cherokee, Etowah, and St. Clair Counties.

These pictures were taken along Lake Logan Martin by Fox 6 viewer Ellen Todd.  The Todd's have seen it worse.  In fact, in previous years they have seen it cover their boathouse.

J-P Dice Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

A Rainy and Cool Weekend

This is going to be one of the coldest and rainiest starts to May.  While we won't break any records, it's certainly going to be chilly tomorrow.  Forecast models have the rain moving in tonight.  Some of the heaviest rain will occur after 10pm and last during the overnight. 

I feel confident we'll see a few breaks in the rain Saturday afternoon - especially West of I-65.  Temperatures will only reach the 50s across the eastern portion of our viewing area.  We will likely reach the lower 60s tomorrow for Tuscaloosa and portions of West Alabama.

The "pesky" upper-level low will continue to keep rain in the forecast through at least Monday.

Talladega Outlook:  I think Saturday's race will likely happen with little problems.  The forecast is looking fairly dry after 2pm.  Temperatures will only reach the mid 50s so make sure you bring a light jacket.  The forecast for Sunday is a bit trickier.  The morning will be mainly dry with rain and clouds returning for the afternoon/evening.  Highs on Sunday will reach the lower 60s.

Have a great weekend!

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

 

It's Just a Yucky Weather Setup

As I was told this afternoon by a co-worker, "yucky" is not a meteorological term.  But, I couldn't really find anything that describes the weekend weather as well as that rather simplistic term.  We've really got a double-whammy moving through the area.

1) We have a strong cold front moving through. 2) The old weatherman's friend - the upper-level low is forecast to move across Alabama.  The combination of these two features will mean clouds, rain, and even a few thunderstorms.

The good news is instability is lacking enough to keep our severe weather potential very, very low.  In fact, the biggest threat will be possibly some heavy rainfall.  I'm expecting 1-2" of rainfall late tomorrow night into Saturday.  For most of the Fox 6 viewing area, we should be dry through at least 2pm.  Rain chances will increase during the late afternoon and evening.

The GFS and ECM are both showing an upper-level low tracking just to the north of us.  This low will mean colder than average temperatures combined with clouds and rain.

This setup will mean plenty of rain even through Sunday.  We'll see some breaks in the rain Sunday, but I do think the race at Talladega will have some issues with the weather.

Temperatures Friday through Sunday will remain in the mid to upper 60s.  I expect overnight lows in the 40s through the weekend.  We'll gradually see some warmer temperatures next week.  Highs will near 80 by Tuesday.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6