The next big weather maker for Alabama which will be more spring-like in nature is still spinning off the West Coast.
Seeing that it's over water, we are not getting a good sample of data than if it were over land. Check out the data sites across the U.S. and notice how sparse they are off the West Coast.
So while the computer models have some data of this system which is being used to simulate the future, ultimately for more accuracy we need the system to move onshore in order to get better data output. When will that be? Most likely Thursday night into early Friday morning.
So based off of latest data here is what might happen on Saturday night into Sunday. Surface low pressure rapidly develops near the Arklatex region on Saturday night.
As this system intensifies and migrates northeastward, winds at the surface and aloft increase and moisture gets transported northward. Showers and storms will fire to our west and south, some of which could produce damaging winds and tornadoes. Alabama really needs to be on guard especially between the hours of midnight through noon on Sunday. It looks like a strong wind field will move right over us and IF enough moisture hence instability advects northward then the severe threat will increase across Central Alabama. There is great uncertainty regarding the finer details but once we get a better sample of the system in another day or two, we should have a pretty good idea as to how far north and east severe storms may develop.
So at this point we recommend making sure you have a plan in place for Saturday night into Sunday morning in case we were to experience severe weather. If you live in a mobile home, make plans now to stay somewhere else that has a foundation at the least. Double check that your weather radio is plugged in, turned on and has fresh batteries in it. Be aware that the storms might roll in when a lot of us are either sleeping or heading out the door for church services. Travel conditions will be very poor early on Sunday and then improve on Sunday afternoon once drier air arrives.
At this point the threat for severe weather is low but possible, just want to make sure everyone is well aware of the possibility.
Thanks and we'll keep you updated,
Fox 6 Meteorologist Jill Gilardi