There's a good break in the action tonight. So far, the forecast has essentially been a few isolated cases of high winds and damage. In fact, for many of us this has been a comfortable Sunday. Storms continue to fire to the west this evening. Louisiana has been taking a beating with some intense storms and a number of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings. These storms are slowly tracking eastward. But, does not mean we will see dangerous storms here. It's possible we might see very little out of this system, but it is too early to make that call right now.
Locally, the best most likely time for storms to arrive is around 11pm. Forecast models are showing some weakening of this line as it progresses to the east. The reason is dry air that has managed to make its way into the state. Dewpoint temperatures are in the 50s and lower 60s right now.
The atmosphere will have to recover considerably over the next 4-5 hours if severe weather is going to occur overnight. I'm not sure that will happen. You can clearly see the dry air on the water vapor imagery across most of the state indicated by the brown colors. This dry air has been mixing down to the surface. The dry air and lack of shear this afternoon has been one of the primary limiting factors for the afternoon severe weather threat.
The Storm Prediction Center continues to hold onto a Slight Risk for severe storms across the state tonight with an Enhanced Risk farther to the west.
The peak time for our possible severe weather tonight will be from 11pm until 3am. The main threats will be small hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat (while not zero) is unlikely with this system. We will need to watch the storms has they move near I-55 in Mississippi. That will give us good indication of what we could possibly expect later tonight. The RPM model output below shows dewpoint temperatures remaining in the 50s with a weakening line of storms.
We will monitor closely to see if the models verify on this solution. Once the final round of possible severe storms clears the area, the rain chances will be low Monday and over the next few days with slightly cooler air. Expect a bit of clearing Monday afternoon with sunny skies expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
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Fox6 Chief Meteorologist