WBRC Weather

A Break in the Rain - Hello Sunshine

We'll be under the influence of high pressure through the foreseable future.  Expect plenty of sunshine with slightly cooler temperatures.  Friday afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 70s.  You'll be most suprised by a brief cool snap Saturday morning.  Temperatures will fall into the upper 40s.  It still looks like the weather will be warm enough for the beach, lake, and the BBQ grill.

The cold front that came through today will reach all the way to South Florida for the weekend.  If you have any plans for travel in the Southeast the weather will be fantastic....few clouds and no rain.

By the way, the official NOAA Hurricane Forecast was released today.  The forecast is indicating above average activity in the Atlantic.  The average number of storms each year is 12.  Keep in mind, the forecast only predicts intensity and number and not whether or not we'll see a landfall.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Small Severe Risk for Extreme North Alabama

It looks like the severe weather will stay away from the Fox 6 viewing area, but for places North of the Tennessee River you could experience some gusty winds and hail this afternoon and evening.  The risk is fairly small, but a thunderstorm warning or two is not out of the question.  The highest risk in Alabama for severe storms today would include Lauderdale, Colbert, and Franklin Counties.

Today is going to be another active weather day for Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas with tornadoes likely.  Little Rock southward to Shreveport and Westward to near Dallas are likely areas to be impacted.  If you have friends and family in those areas - you might want to alert them to the possibility of additional dangerous storms today.

Here at home our rain and thunderstorm chances will climb tomorrow with little to no risk of severe weather.  The dynamics with the potent system in the Plains will track far to our north.  I think hail and winds over 20mph will be our greatest threat after 1pm tomorrow.  We'll keep you posted.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6 

Rain Likely, but Not a Washout

We had overcast skies across much of the region today with a few glimpses of sunshine.  Showers have been spotty today with most of the rain this morning falling in the western sections of our viewing area.  We saw some additional rain in East Alabama toward the afternoon/evening.  Saturday will be a bit wetter tomorrow as the main cold front comes through the area.

The additional cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures in the 70s Saturday.

The heaviest rainfall will occur south of I-20 tomorrow afternoon.  Severe weather is not expected, but we could see a few heavy downpours.

The best chance of rain will likely be between 11am and 5pm.

 

By Sunday morning at 7am, we'll see mostly clear skies with temperatures in the 50s.

The longer range forecast appears to be dry with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s next week.  Plenty of sunshine is expected for early next week.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
@jpdice_Fox6

 

Even Warmer Temperatures Coming

We're bracing for some rather warm temperatures tomorrow.  It's going to feel a lot more like May than the late Winter weather we've been feeling.  Expect overnight lows tonight in the upper 50s.  Highs will reach the mid 80s tomorrow afternoon.  These numbers are the lastest update from our in-house computer model.


We will see a few spotty showers and thunderstorms mainly north of I-20 during the afternoon.  It doesn't appear we'll see anything too organized or widespread.

The longer range forecast is still indcating a good chance of rain and thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday.  The models are still having some issues regarding timing.  It's possible we could see the system come through fairly quickly and clear out by noon Saturday.  The GFS model is showing the rain and clouds lingering through Sunday.  We'll keep you updated on the timing.  I don't think we'll see any widespread severe weather.  However, I do think a few storms south of I-20 could be on the strong side. 

The forecast is looking dry with sunnier weather on Sunday.  It appears we'll continue with this sunny weather pattern through early next week.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s.  The morning lows will be a bit chilly early next week with lows in the 40s.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

A Rainy and Cool Weekend

This is going to be one of the coldest and rainiest starts to May.  While we won't break any records, it's certainly going to be chilly tomorrow.  Forecast models have the rain moving in tonight.  Some of the heaviest rain will occur after 10pm and last during the overnight. 

I feel confident we'll see a few breaks in the rain Saturday afternoon - especially West of I-65.  Temperatures will only reach the 50s across the eastern portion of our viewing area.  We will likely reach the lower 60s tomorrow for Tuscaloosa and portions of West Alabama.

The "pesky" upper-level low will continue to keep rain in the forecast through at least Monday.

Talladega Outlook:  I think Saturday's race will likely happen with little problems.  The forecast is looking fairly dry after 2pm.  Temperatures will only reach the mid 50s so make sure you bring a light jacket.  The forecast for Sunday is a bit trickier.  The morning will be mainly dry with rain and clouds returning for the afternoon/evening.  Highs on Sunday will reach the lower 60s.

Have a great weekend!

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

 

Watching Severe Weather Potential

We're starting to getting a bit of a better idea about the mid-late week severe weather threat.  It's still a bit early in our analysis, but this appears to have the makings for another QLCS (line of storms).  We could be looking at a system similar to March 18th.  I always stress just because the tornado threat isn't extreme - it doesn't mean you cannot have widespread damage.

Both the NAM and GFS models are indicating the best timeframe on this system for its Alabama arrival will be early Thursday morning.  I still think the line of storms will still be in Arkansas and Mississippi Wednesday night.

Based on the thermodynamics, I'd expect winds over 80mph, small to moderate hail, and frequent lightning.  The tornado threat is still in the moderate to low category.  I think the best chance of tornad development would reside within the line of storms itself.  The Energy-Helicity index is still not suggestive of a tornado outbreak.  The GFS model indicates the line of storms pushing through before noon on Thursday.

This is a system that must be watched.  Afterall, we're in one of our peak months for severe weather here in Alabama.  It doesn't really matter if the damage is caused by thunderstorms or tornadoes - damage is damage and can be severe whether or not we see tornado development.  We will watch carefully.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6 

Rain is Coming and Big Snow for the Northeast

Low pressure continues to track northeastward across the Southeast.  This is going to spread rain into Alabama during the overnight hours.  I expect some rain in the Tuscaloosa area by 2-3am.  We are not anticipating severe weather, but areas south of I-20 will see some heavy rainfall.

The ride into work or school will likely be wet for many of us.  Expect the rain chances to taper off after 4pm.  Rain will shift into East Alabama during the afternoon.  I do think we'll still see some linger off and on showers Friday.  Temperatures will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s during the afternoon Thursday.

The big weather news on the national scene will be in the Northeast.  The low pressure area that will bring rain to the Southeast will track up the Mid-Atlantic and New England.  Forecast models are indicating snowfall totals as high as 36" in the Boston area.  New York City will likely receive between 10-20" of snowfall.

We can expect massive travel delays and possibly power outages in the Northeast from Friday into Saturday in New England.

Weekend Forecast and Beyond: Saturday will be dry across the state with highs in the lower 60s.  We'll see partly sunny skies.  Sunday will generally be dry with only a few showers during the evening.  We could see some thunderstorms after midnight into Monday morning.  Rain and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday and Wednesday.  Heavy rainfall will be possible.  It's still too early to determine if we'll see some severe storms out of next week's system. 

I am confident we are going to be looking at some much colder air somewhere around the 15-16th of the month.  Looks like a major pattern change with highs only reaching the 40s.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

A "Little" Snow in the Forecast

If you're a snow-lover, you may get your wish tomorrow.  I'm not talking about a blizzard or anything that should shut down businesses or schools.  This will likely be a combination of flurries, rain, and perhaps some accumulation in the grassy areas.  A couple of things are working in our favor if you're a traveler.  

1) Ground temperatures are above freezing

2) This is a fast moving system.

For people who are from places like Cleveland or Buffalo this attempt at snow would not be enough to raise an eyebrow.

Forecast models are showing the cold core low tracking from Southwest to Northeast across Alabama and dropping the temperatures just above the surface to below freezing.  Surface temperatures are still expected to reach between 38-42 degrees tomorrow.

This is the RPM model.  It's one of many in our arsenal at Fox 6.  By 1pm tomorrow - it's hinting at a dusting of snow across West Alabama extending back toward Jackson, Mississippi.

The NAM or North American model is indicating rain and snow mixed across the area.  It would suggest the heaviest snowfall would be in the higher elevations of East Alabama.  It would not be surprising to see upwards of an 1" or more of snowfall on Mt. Cheaha, Straight Mountain, Sand Mountain, or Lookout Mountain.  These are the only areas where I think some travel issues could exist because of the higher elevations.

The "blue encircled area" on the the above NAM plot agrees with the RPM showing where the snow will begin.  That's largely an area in West Alabama including Tuscaloosa.  This will occur mid to late morning Thursday.  Remember, this event will begin as rain only early.

During the afternoon much of the moisture will outpace the cold air.  But, we'll still see some light accumulations in East Alabama around 4-5pm.

In the whole scheme of things, this snow event would be a 2 on a scale of 1-10.  These upper-level lows are difficult to predict, but it would be very difficult for us to have any major travel issues because of the warm ground and the overall speed of the system.  It's not quite the perfect setup.  Expect a fairly rapid clearing in the wake of the system with sunshine back on Friday.

We'll keep you updated!

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: jpdice_Fox6 

Patchy Ice in the Forecast

I wouldn't call this an ice storm or even a freezing rain event.  But, we're still seeing a few isolated travel issues for a portion of the state.  Marion, Winston, Walker, Fayette, Lamar, and Cullman counties are experiences some Winter weather tonight.  The main issue is icing in trees and on tops of vehicles.  To a limited amount, we're seeing ice form on some roadways - especially the elevated sections.  I would advise you to use caution when driving overnight and early tomorrow morning.

The primary impact tonight will be a limited threat for icing, but I'd also recommend to watch out for flooded roadways.  I've seen some reports in Cullman County and around Bessemer of roads underwater.  We could see some additional flooding tomorrow due to heavy rain.  The forecast models are indicating a good chance of rain through tomorrow night.


The rain chances are going to remain high through Thursday.  As you've seen in Dr. Tim's earlier posts Thursday is proving to be a difficult forecast.  More than likely - it will be only rain, but there is a chance of a burst of snow with the cold core system Thursday.  We'll watch closely.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: jpdice_Fox6

Not as Wet, But Still Cloudy

The unseasonable warmth continues across the Southeast through the weekend.  This means highs in the mid 70s with lows in the mid 60s.  Temperatures will reach near record highs during the afternoon. Forecast models keep most of the rain to our north and west tomorrow with additional rain expected beginning again Sunday.

We will likely have enough instability on Sunday to result  in a few thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.  I'm still not anticipating any severe weather with our next system. 

Monday will likely be cold and dreary with highs in the mid to upper 40s.  Heavy rain is likely in the forecast through Tuesday.  This system is so wet localized flooding is likely.  Rain chances will remain  in the forecast through at least Wednesday.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: jpdice_Fox6