WBRC Weather

Watching Strong Storms Approach West Alabama

For now - it looks like the NWS will issue Special Weather Statements on the storms moving into West Alabama.  Over the last hour there have been few damage reports in Mississippi.  The max wind gust reported in Starkville was around 35mph.

As you can see from this radar snapshot the storms are almost at the Alabama line and will soon impact Marion, Lamar, and Pickens Counties.  The primary threat will be gusty winds and intense lightning.  The storms should remain under severe weather limits.  But - I will warn you they will be noisy storms.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Overnight Severe Threat?

We're watching the storms to our west very closely tonight.  It looks like we're seeing a considerable weakening as the storms track to the east.  With wind shear lacking, these storms will turn into primarily rain producers for Northwest Alabama.  In the Fox 6 viewing area, we will likely get some heavy rain, wind gusts over 20mph, and some lightning overnight.  The best chance for rain and storms will be Marion and Lamar Counties.

This is updated RPM model data for the overnight.

West Alabama will experience some rain and thunderstorms tomorrow morning, but the best chance of stronger storms will occur during the afternoon.  Let me stress - it looks like storms tomorrow will remain below severe limits.  We will have some thunder and lightning.


You'll see spotty showers and storms during the afternoon as a cool front nears the area. 


Temperatures tomorrow will reach the lower 80s with partly sunny skies.  Rain chances will taper off during the evening hours.  Looks like drier weather for Thursday and milder temperatures just in time for the Memorial Day Weekend.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 11pm

Turning Hot and Some Spotty Thunderstorms On Thursday

The ridge of high pressure that has brought triple digit temperatures to the Plains is moving our weay and it means business.  The temperature trend through next week will keep us in the mid 80s and possibly even the upper 80s by the end of the weekend.  The average temperature is 81 degrees.  I would expect areas in West Alabama to reach 90 by Sunday.

As far as rain goes on Thursday, our forecast model is predicting the best chance during the afternoon hours.  Most of the rain should track just to the north of Birmingham during the afternoon.  Some of the rain could begin as early as late morning, but most will move in during the afternoon.  I'm still not predicting a widespread rain-event.  We'll see an almost Summertime pattern of pop up thunderstorms.  No severe weather is expected with this next system. 

The weekend is still looking generally dry and warm.  Highs both Saturday and Sunday will reach the mid to upper 80s with a few showers/storms returning early next week.  I recommend you find a pool or perhaps make a trip to the beach.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Even Warmer Temperatures Coming

We're bracing for some rather warm temperatures tomorrow.  It's going to feel a lot more like May than the late Winter weather we've been feeling.  Expect overnight lows tonight in the upper 50s.  Highs will reach the mid 80s tomorrow afternoon.  These numbers are the lastest update from our in-house computer model.


We will see a few spotty showers and thunderstorms mainly north of I-20 during the afternoon.  It doesn't appear we'll see anything too organized or widespread.

The longer range forecast is still indcating a good chance of rain and thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday.  The models are still having some issues regarding timing.  It's possible we could see the system come through fairly quickly and clear out by noon Saturday.  The GFS model is showing the rain and clouds lingering through Sunday.  We'll keep you updated on the timing.  I don't think we'll see any widespread severe weather.  However, I do think a few storms south of I-20 could be on the strong side. 

The forecast is looking dry with sunnier weather on Sunday.  It appears we'll continue with this sunny weather pattern through early next week.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s.  The morning lows will be a bit chilly early next week with lows in the 40s.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

It's Just a Yucky Weather Setup

As I was told this afternoon by a co-worker, "yucky" is not a meteorological term.  But, I couldn't really find anything that describes the weekend weather as well as that rather simplistic term.  We've really got a double-whammy moving through the area.

1) We have a strong cold front moving through. 2) The old weatherman's friend - the upper-level low is forecast to move across Alabama.  The combination of these two features will mean clouds, rain, and even a few thunderstorms.

The good news is instability is lacking enough to keep our severe weather potential very, very low.  In fact, the biggest threat will be possibly some heavy rainfall.  I'm expecting 1-2" of rainfall late tomorrow night into Saturday.  For most of the Fox 6 viewing area, we should be dry through at least 2pm.  Rain chances will increase during the late afternoon and evening.

The GFS and ECM are both showing an upper-level low tracking just to the north of us.  This low will mean colder than average temperatures combined with clouds and rain.

This setup will mean plenty of rain even through Sunday.  We'll see some breaks in the rain Sunday, but I do think the race at Talladega will have some issues with the weather.

Temperatures Friday through Sunday will remain in the mid to upper 60s.  I expect overnight lows in the 40s through the weekend.  We'll gradually see some warmer temperatures next week.  Highs will near 80 by Tuesday.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   525 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   
   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
     NORTHWEST GEORGIA
   
   * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 525 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
     CDT.
   
   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
     SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF
   HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM
   ALABAMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
   
   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

Trying to Time Out Wednesday's Rain

Temperatures have been warming up ahead of a strong cold front.  We saw highs today in the upper 70s thanks to a south wind and plenty of sunshine.

We'll get through the morning commute with just cloudy skies, but by mid-late morning I'm expecting rain to begin impacting Marion, Lamar, Pickens and possibly even Tuscaloosa Counties.  The rain should be widespread beginning around 1pm and will enter our East Alabama counties by 4pm.  We can expect a fairly rapid clearing behind the cold front with temperatures falling into the lower 40s.

Thursday and Friday both look dry and sunny.  You'll notice a bit of a cool down behind this system.  By the weekend, we're expecting another round of rain and storms and we may continue with a fairly wet period through early next week.  Fortunately, I'm not seeing any threat for severe storms at this point.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
@jpdice_Fox6

Possibility of Very Gusty Winds Later Today

There is a chance we could have some gusty winds later today as the rain tapers off across the area. We’re concerned that a wake low could trigger a period of 15-25 mph sustained winds, with gusts as high as 40 mph. These higher gusts will have the potential to bring down large tree limbs or topple some trees. I'm already noticing some gusts near 30 mph in parts of East Mississippi. 

Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
Twitter @weswyattweather
Facebook.com/weswyattfox6
wwyatt@wbrc.com

NWS Confirms EF-3 In Mississippi/EF-1 in Pickens County

The National Weather Service has confirmed that an EF-1 tornado touched down in Pickens County with winds of 100-110 mph. The path began 3.52 miles NW of Pickensville and dissipated nearly a mile East of Ethelsville. This was the same storm responsible for the Noxubee County, MS tornado in the picture. The Jackson NWS says the tornado in the picture was an EF-3 with winds of 145 mph. This EF-3 had a path width of 3/4 of a mile at one point and traveled over 50 miles in Mississippi. The tornado first touched down in southwest Kemper County, MS and continued into Pickens County, AL. In Alabama the tornado then weakened to the EF-1 stage and later dissipated. There was one fatality in Kemper County, MS and 9 injuries in Kemper/Noxubee counties.

Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
Twitter @weswyattweather
Facebook.com/weswyattfox6
wwyatt@wbrc.com