During the Summer months here in Alabama, cool fronts are usually a non-event. But, this Summer we're seeing more fronts actually make it through the state. I'm looking at two separate setups that could bring some drier air and even a dose of slightly cooler temperatures next week.
First Front: The next cool front set to roll through the area is sometime between late Wednesday and early Thursday. This front will bring some rain for the northern section of the state Wednesday night and additional rain Thursday for areas along the I-20 corridor and southward. While no severe weather is forecast with this setup, we could see a few thunderstorms. This is the NAM output for early Thursday.
Weekend Relief: I don't think we'll see cooler temperatures with this boundary. I do feel confident it will usher in some drier air. This drier airmass will mean more comfortable conditions over the weekend with lower dewpoint temperatures. Temperatures will remain hot with highs both Saturday and Sunday reaching the lower 90s.
Beach Forecast: Rain chances will be fairly low with only a 20% rain chance along the Gulf Coast. Highs will reach the lower 90s with morning lows in the mid 70s. Water temperature is 87 degrees.
Cooler Next Week: We will likely see some milder temperatures next week as a deeper trough digs into the Southeast. This system will likely mean some rain and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Expect temperatures in the 80s.
Fox6 Chief Meteorologist
We've been busy tracking thunderstorms this afternoon. Some of the rain has resulted in street flooding in Downtown Birmingham. We also had heavy downpours in near West Blocton in Bibb County and around I-20 in the Pell City area. The storms have since disappeared. In some of the rain-soaked areas, we could see some patchy fog overnight.
The hour by hour forecast is indicating drier conditions tonight with partly cloudy skies. It looks like Tuesday morning will be mainly dry with showers and storms again during the afternoon.
With little in the way of upper-level winds, storms will move very little. A few heavy downpours are possible along with significant cloud to ground lightning.
The tropics are becoming active. We now have Tropical Depression number 2. This system could become Bertha if it continues to strengthen. Right now this area of low pressure is about 2500 miles from Miami. We'll continue to track in the coming days. Forecast models indicate a track toward Bahamas and Puerto Rico.
The extended forecast keeps us partly sunny with scattered storms through the rest of the week. Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. A late week front could bring some additional rain Thursday.
Have great evening!
Fox6 Chief Meteorologist
A slow moving disturbance continues to produce moderate to heavy rain across west Alabama and light rain to the east. Rainfall estimates so far range from .50" to almost 1" across parts of Marion, Lamar, Fayette and Winston counties. Amounts drop off considerably to the east across the part of the state that's suffering the most from a rainfall deficit. Anniston has seen only .09" so far this month and is running -2.47" below normal. Birmingham has a monthly rainfall deficit of -1.98", Tuscaloosa of -2.01" and the Shelby County Airport of -2.44".
Computer models continue to indicate the heaviest rain exceeding 1 inch to fall across west Alabama and much lighter amounts to the east of I-65 through the rest of Friday. As this system continues to shift eastward with time, so will the better rain chances. Total rainfall amounts by the end of Saturday may approach the 1 inch for areas to the east of I-65.
We will be keeping a close eye on the radar later this afternoon and early evening for possible severe storms across west Alabama. The greatest risk for severe weather is the area highlighted in yellow which includes Greene, Sumter, and Hale counties and points southward. Areas just to the north of the highlighted slight risk zone needs to still be on guard and have a way to get weather warnings later today just in case a storm ramps up to severe level. Severe threats include isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line wind gusts. If you have plans on heading to the Gulf Coast, I recommend leaving as early as possible today because short term models indicate strong storms marching eastward across south Alabama after 7PM.
Rain and storms are likely Friday and lingering through Friday night. This system is tracking eastward and the general shower and storm motion will be east or northeasterly. Short term models indicate west Alabama getting more of a break from the wet weather this weekend and better rain chances focusing across the eastern part of the state. The hour-by-hour futurecast shows the wet periods and best chance zones for rain through the weekend. Overall, it looks like the wettest day is Friday, especially to the west of I-65.
Continue to check back for additional updates regarding rain and storm chances!
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
A weakening line of rain and storms is marching our way in advance of a cold front tonight. This line is now approaching Hamilton and Russellville. It looks like the cold pool (from the rain cooled air to the north) is starting to outrun the line and this is a good sign of weakening. This gust front will bring some gusty winds to portions of Lamar, Marion, and Winston counties within the next hour.
We’ve already had quite a bit of rain over the northeast portions of the area tonight. In fact, a storm continues to produce frequent lightning over Etowah County. This cell is tracking into southern Cherokee County.
Be sure to join us on Fox6 for updates on the approaching frontal system and the changes we expect for tomorrow!
Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
Heat of the day induced showers and storms are once again expected today. They will be isolated in nature, slow movers and locally heavy rainfall producers. Keep an ear out for thunder. If you hear it roar, go indoors until 30 minutes after the last clap of thunder. Remember lightning can strike up to 10 miles away.
As a cold front nears from the north, organized showers and storms develop ahead of it and push southward with time. Chances increase from north to south across the state on Monday.
Storms may be strong to severe as they enter north Alabama and that's why the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for severe storms as far south as Fayette to Jasper to Gadsden. Main threats will be damaging straight line winds and large hail. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Storms will weaken as they push southward towards I-20 early on Tuesday morning.
Scattered showers and storms linger on Tuesday and by the evening hours, the moisture should be more focused across south Alabama.
Computer model indicates over the next 3 days that as little as .10" is possible to as much as 1" of rainfall.
Once the front passes, humidity and temperature levels drop enough that you'll notice a little bit more comfort in the air!
Have a great rest of the weekend!
-Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
Hot and humid weather persists this weekend with heat of the day showers and storms possible. The activity will be isolated in nature so most of us will stay dry. Consider yourself lucky if you get a passing shower. Continue to water the lawn and garden! Highs in the lower 90s and feels like temperatures in the middle 90s.
Our next rain maker is centered across the Midwest and will cause showers and storms to fire to our north on Monday and shift southward across Alabama by Monday afternoon. Best chance is on Tuesday when the actual front arrives. A few strong to severe storms will be possible both days. Rain totals by Tuesday night could exceed 1" in some places. As always not everyone will get a lot of rain, but something is better than nothing.
The other joy in the long term forecast is the return of less humid air and slightly cooler temperatures from Wednesday through Friday. Lows in the lower to middle 60s and highs in the middle and upper 80s.
-Jill Gilardi Meteorologist
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