Storms continue to fire and race north and northeastward at 45 mph or more and will impact areas along I-20 from Birmingham to Anniston by 11AM and then the threat for additional activity only increases during the afternoon hours.
Low pressure is really starting to crank across Louisiana and will continue to track northeasterly. As this happens, storms will grow in strength and coverage across Alabama from south to north. Storms will be capable of producing lots of lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds. The strongest of the storms could produce damaging winds. The greatest risk for damaging winds and or tornadoes sets up to the south of I-85.
It will be interesting to watch this system evolve this afternoon especially since the HRRR model shows the radar looking like this by 3pm. There could be some embedded strong to severe storms if this simulation actually develops. Either way, the greatest instability will be south during this time frame.
We'll continue to monitor storm development and update you throughout the day.
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
The latest storm outlook from the Storm Prediction Center shows the Fox 6 viewing area under a marginal risk for strong to severe storms. The slight risk was removed from the southern portion of the viewing area. The area under a slight risk is in yellow and includes Mobile to Auburn and points eastward. An enhanced risk for severe weather exists across far southeast Alabama and across the panhandle of Florida.
TRACKING THE STORMS HOUR BY HOUR:
Current system to our southwest and tracking northeastward which will send rain and storms our way today!
The activity ramps up to the southwest during the early afternoon hours from Aliceville to Eutaw.
Storms, some of which could be strong and produce wind gusts over 40 mph will impact areas along I-65 during the early afternoon hours as well.
Storms continue to march northeastward and will be exiting the Fox 6 viewing area by 5pm.
Again, the worst of the weather is expected from Montgomery and points southward and that's where tornadoes might develop or damaging wind storms.
So all and all, expect a few showers the rest of this morning and then more numerous showers and storms this afternoon, some of which could be strong or severe. The severe threat is low but not zero. Besides a few showers, weather conditions improve tonight if you want to go out and squeeze in some last minute grocery shopping for Thanksgiving.
If anything does develop that's either strong or severe, we'll be sure to update you online and on air if necessary.
Sounds like a perfect day to watch a movie or some football!
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
As of midnight we were still observing a very stable environment across Alabama but we expect that to change over the next 12 hours as strong upper level storm system approaches from the west. You can see the placement of the approaching upper level storm system on this water vapor analysis panel.
SPC just released the new severe weather outlook for today. You can see the slight risk (in yellow) remains south of the I-20 corridor. The one change has been an adjustment in the slight risk further northward into Talladega and Clay counties to the east. The primary impact for our area will be damaging straight line winds associated with any severe storms that manage to materialize. Areas north of a line from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham and Anniston look to have a marginal threat, although you can expect some pockets of heavy rain and thunder. The greatest risk for severe weather in our state will be in southeast Alabama (enhanced far southeast-in orange). The possibility of severe storms capable of damaging straight-line winds along with a tornado threat will be higher in this region due to a combination of wind shear and instability. Jill will have LIVE updates beginning at 6 a.m. on Fox6!
Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
A powerful storm system will be impacting our state beginning late tonight and continuing into the day tomorrow. The sky has become overcast in response to this system and I expect showers to start popping-up prior to midnight. The threat for storms will be on the increase tomorrow morning beginning around 8 a.m. over Southwest Alabama. Storms are expected to lift in from the southwest and continue to build northeast across our area through lunchtime.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: This system will have plenty of wind energy and I’m concerned about the possibility of severe storms capable of producing damaging straight-line winds between 8 a.m. and 4 p.m. The greatest risk for severe weather in our area will be in locations south of I-20. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out in this region; however, the tornado risk will be greater over South Alabama. The greatest combination of wind shear and instability will be over south Alabama and this air mass should migrate northeast into central Georgia, possibly impacting the Atlanta area.
BE WEATHER AWARE TOMORROW: These November severe weather setups can change quickly, as we observed last Sunday. Also, a lot of this activity will be materializing while many church services are happening so be sure to monitor the developments through late morning and have a way of receiving updates. We have several tools to help you stay informed using your mobile device at http://myfoxal.com/apps
Much drier air will wrap in behind this system tomorrow afternoon as the heavier rain sliding east. We will have to monitor this setup for the possibility of gusty winds in the wake of the rainy weather. Temperatures will remain rather mild through tomorrow night but a cold front will bring another big drop in temperatures beginning on Monday.
THANKSGIVING WEEK – EAST COAST STORM COULD IMPACT TRAVEL
Right now we are looking at a dry forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday but we will be monitoring a developing storm system to our southwest. Models are showing a deepening storm system along the east coast for Wednesday and Thanksgiving. This could impact holiday travel into New England.
We will have updated Futurecast data to share with you tonight immediately following the college football game on Fox6. We will also have additional thoughts on our weather blog at http://myfoxtracker.com
Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
The 12z NAM model data is in and we're continuing to see a trend with severe weather potential the highest along the Gulf Coast and South Alabama Sunday. The forecast models have slowed this system down somewhat.
For the Fox6 viewing area, the greatest risk for severe storms tomorrow will be in Chilton, Coosa, Tallapoosa, and Clay Counties. If you're south of I-20 and east of I-65, I would remain weather aware from 10am until 4pm Sunday. Below is the projected radar for 6am Sunday.
The wind shear and instability will remain along the Gulf Coast at this time based on the model data. Below is the 3km Energy-Helicity Index. The higher the number - the greatest the severe threat. At 6am Sunday, the really unstable air wil remain in the Gulf of Mexico.
We will begin to see some changes by noon Sunday with widespread rain and the instability creeping northward, but still along the panhandle of Florida.
Rain will be widespread at noon with some thunderstorms - most of the thunderstorms will be elevated and not surface based. Areas south of I-20 will likely be experiencing some heavy rainfall. This is the simulated radar for noon Sunday. We will be experiencing some very breezy conditions with winds over 20mph. It's possible a few thunderstorms could producing some damaging winds.
By 6pm, the heaviest rainfall will have shifted eastward into Georgia.
The severe wx above is one of my favorite severe weather tools. It's one stop shopping. One of the issues that will be a limiting factor for severe weather Sunday is the phasing of the instability and wind shear. Essentially, this means when we have the highest instability the highest shear has shifted eastward. If you look at the chart above, you look for the brightest colors coexisting with the higher helicity contours. This is the 6pm output for Sunday which keeps the CAPE around 500 j/kg in South Alabama with highest shear values in Georgia. The values are even lower earlier in the day Sunday.
The Bottom Line: We could be at risk for severe storms tomorrow - especially areas south of I-20. The greatest risk is likely even farther south. The concern is largely based on the amount of wind shear associated with this system. The instability here is the question. It would not take much instability to stream northward to result in significant severe weather - this is why this system needs to be watched. The key timeframe to watch Sunday is from 10am until 4pm.
Stay with Fox6 for updates.
Fox6 Chief Meteorologist
We're always watching for something here in Alabama. Whether it's rain, an Arctic outbreak, or a batch of severe weather - it's almost always a busy time in the weather center. Our focus now is on the weekend. We'll soon be trading the cold air for mild and moist air. Highs this weekend are going to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Fox6 viewing area. That's about 35 degrees warmer than our high temperatures today. Talk about one extreme to the other.
Our weekend system is now closing in on the West coast. You can see the clouds associated with this powerful weathermaker on the GOES satellite picture.
The GFS model is indicating the system should arrive in West Alabama during the early evening Saturday. This is shaping up to be a linear system or squall line. The primary severe weather threat appears to be south of Montgomery, but if we realize enough moisture return it's possible to see a fair amount of severe storms across much of Alabama. At the very least, I think we'll see some widespread high winds associated with the approaching line of storms. During this time of the year, we typically deal with high shear and low instability severe weather. Historically, these systems aren't quite as severe as what we see in the Spring, but we have seen some significant tornadoes this time of the year.
The GFS derived model sounding for Saturday night in Tuscaloosa is indicating some very high helicity values. If you look at the wind barbs on the right hand side of the chart - you'll see some significant turning of winds in the atmosphere to indicate extreme wind shear. Winds at around 800mb are going to be over 50kts or about 53mph. That's significant and often produces storms that produce damaging winds.
At this point, the instability is not that impressive, but the shear is downright ugly. If we see just modest moisture return this system could mean tornado producing supercells. Here's a look at the timing of the storms. The GFS output for around 3am Sunday is already showing widespread rain. Storms could begin entering the state between 11pm and 1am Saturdaynight and Sunday morning.
The heaviest rain and thunderstorms will have move into Georgia early Sunday, but we'll likely still be dealing with some lingering storms Sunday morning. Models indicate the strongest storms will likely tracking along the Gulf Coast and extend northward to the Montgomery area. Keep in mind this can change quickly and the tornado threat could become more widespread.
What can we expect? Warm temperatures on Saturday with highs between 68 and 70. Increasing clouds late in the day with rain moving into West Alabama as early as 11pm. A line of storms will likley move across the state Saturday night into Sunday morning. The primary threat will be damaging winds over 50mph. The tornado threat should remain mainly south of Montgomery, but I'm stressing this could change and include at least parts of the Fox6 viewing area depending on the moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico. At this point, I'd include a lower risk for tornadoes and a higher risk for widespread damaging winds.
We'll keep you posted on any changes so you can plan your weekend.
Fox6 Chief Meteorologist
This morning started off either wet across northwest Alabama like in Hamilton...
Or with increasing clouds and a beautiful sunrise, like in Hoover and Pell City...
Clouds continue to take over the state and rain is slowly doing so, especially northwest. We are tracking a low pressure system that's causing all of this precipitation to develop which is heading our way.
It has been a wet morning across northwest Alabama with rain intensifying...
Heavy rain continues across Lamar, Marion, Fayette and Winston counties with already estimates of 1/2" to 3/4" of rain so far.
Rain reaches central Alabama during the early afternoon hours...
Rain impacts east Alabama after 3PM...
Rain and storms are likely tonight resulting in heavy rainfall...
Heavy rain and storms continue through Monday morning...
Rain exits eastward by the mid-morning hours on Monday and a brief mix is possible across far northern Alabama. No travel issues expected due to snow.
Rainfall amounts will range from 1-3" total by Monday morning!
Areas along and southeast of the I-59/I-20 corridor still have several hours of dry weather to enjoy until the afternoon hours.
Have a good rest of the weekend,
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
It's a bit warmer this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the lower 70s across the area thanks to a south wind. You will begin to nice some clouds streaming into the state later this afternoon and evening. Lows tonight will fall into the mid 50s.
Wednesday will be a day of transition. Once again we're bracing for another blast of cool air. This blast of cool air is not quite as potent as the last one. Many folks like to associate cold front with severe storms or even tornadoes. Cold fronts are just a boundary between warmer and cooler air. Sometimes the lifting with fronts does produce a line of thunderstorms. In this case, we're not expecting thunderstorms, but just some pre-frontal rain.
What time? It appears most of Wednesday should be dry with just cloudy skies in the forecast. The best time for rain will occur after 3pm and widespread rain after dark. Expect showers to continue through at least 10am Thursday. The NAM is indicating most rain will not arrive until after midnight Wednesday.
The rain should push east by mid-morning on Thursday. Cooler temperatures will follow with highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s. Expect clearing skies by Thursday afternoon and sunshine on Friday.
While Saturday should be dry, the GFS is indicating some light rain in the forecast late Saturday night. The 540 thickness line again dips south and this will mean the possibility of again some light snowfall for the Smokies and East Tennessee. Perhaps - a few flurries around Bridgeport or Stevenson, Alabama.
Lows Sunday morning will fall between 36 and 39 degrees with highs only in the 50s. We can expect a few clouds Sunday morning with sunshine during the afternoon.
Sunshine should continue in the forecast through early next week.
Have a great afternoon!
Fox6 Chief Meteorologist
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