*Have outdoor plans Sunday? Be ready to change them because it looks pretty wet!*
The computer models which show what the atmosphere and weather might look like days in advance are all indicating a large trough across the western U.S. and a disturbance across the Midwest. Both of these features will cause the winds to flow from the southwest across Alabama and the rest of the Southeast. Southwesterly winds will transport moisture and allow disturbances to hitch a ride on and track our way.
What does this all mean? A good chance for rain, potentially heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding and a strong storm chance potential. Disagreement amongst the models makes it difficult to target where the wettest weather will set up and potential strong storms at this point.
NAM VORTICITY FORECAST AT 500 MB (18,000 feet) FOR 7AM SUNDAY:
If you look below, you will see the features I was talking about.
Now see the subtle differences between computer models of the same features...
Now scroll below through the surface forecast models for 12PM Sunday:
Overall, rain appears likely but where the heaviest rain will set up is still uncertain. The main flow disruptor doesn't arrive across the West Coast until Saturday morning and until it arrives, we won't get a good sample of it. I suspect that the models will start to agree more by Friday night or Saturday morning.
As soon as we know more information, we'll be sure to pass it along.
Oh and we need the rain seeing moderate drought continues across parts of central Alabama:
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
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