First off, if any frozen precipitation were to fall across northeast Alabama it would NOT accumulate. This is a chance for mainly the higher elevations and would not create any problems on the roadways. Don't be shocked though if you live across Cherokee County and points northward including Guntersville to Fort Payne to see a few flakes or ice pellets fly between midnight tonight and 8AM Saturday morning. There isn't a strong signal that this will definitely happen but more like a 30% chance. If you are up early and happen to see this, please let us know!
The computer models vary somewhat as to how far south and west the chance for flurries could set up overnight. The greatest chance is across the mountains of Tennessee and North Carolina.
Below is the RPM output:
Below is the NAM output which hints at ice pellets rather than snow across northeast AL:
The HRRR model for the midnight time frame shows a small corner of the state being clipped by snow:
Bufkit GFS Overview for Chattanooga shows a slight chance for snow during the early morning hours on Saturday: Blue bars = snow
In Huntsville, the same model shows a hint at a frozen precipitation chance: Blue bar = snow
The further south you go the moisture gets cut off and that's why the chance is so low across Alabama and especially towards central Alabama for a few flakes to fly. Better moisture combined with lift and cold air sets up farther northeast.
Overall, the alignment of ice crystals in the clouds, lift, moisture and cold temperatures is greatest in Chattanooga and points northward and that means there is a slightly better chance for a few flakes. I'm not impressed enough for any accumulation but seeing enough of a signal that the clouds may be capable of squeezing out a brief period of wintry precipitation. It's the kind you don't have to worry about. :)
The big story is the cold air headed our way for the weekend! Freeze warnings remain in effect through Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the lower 30s and winds make it feel like it's in the 20s. Sunday morning could be just as cold with slightly lighter winds.
This cold could put an end to the Alabama growing season. IF you have sensitive outdoor plants, bring them in or cover them so they don't get killed by the cold.
Don't forget about the pets, they are not use to this cold either. Make sure they have warm shelter and plenty of water and food. It's time to break out the doggy sweater! ;)
If you have any questions, feel free to contact me:
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist