WBRC Weather

Visit to Bagley Elementary

The Fox 6 StormTracker headed to Dora today for a visit to Bagley to Elementary.  I had the opportunity to speak with 3th and 4th graders there.  The students gave me an incredibly warm welcome.

Plus - look at the wonderful cake!  Thank you Bagley.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

 

Snow Falling

Florence Snowfall

Florence Snowfall

Athens

Snowy Weather One Year Ago

The weather was much different one year ago today.   Instead of temperatures expected to reach the 60s - much of Central and North Alabama was dealing with snow.  The Tennessee Valley was hit particularly hard.   The low that day was 21 degrees and the high was 32 in Birmingham.


 James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com 

Snow Falling in Marion/Winston Counties

We're seeing a few snow flurries across Northwest Alabama this afternoon.  Snowflakes just afternoon and evening should be the wet and sloppy variety.  The latest model runs from our VIPIR BAMS model and our in-house Microcast are really backing off on the snowfall amounts.

The bulleye for snowfall is still to our northwest across Northern Mississippi and West Tennessee.  But - the amounts are much lower.  We're seeing amounts totally 2.5" in those areas.  In the Fox 6 viewing area, there are many places that will not see any accumulating snowfall.

The best chance for accumulation and that's going to be in grassy areas and rooftops will likely be Marion, Winston, Lamar, and Fayette Counties.  We could see a light dusting of snow in Northern Talladega County around Mt. Cheaha.  If you have travel plans and those travels take you northward - you may see some light snow around the Huntsville/Decatur area through Tuesday morning.  Amounts will likely be less than 1" in the Tennessee Valley.

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com

 

Bufkit Snowfall Projections

One of my favorite tools for snow forecasting is a piece of software called Bufkit.  It was developed by the National Weather Service Office in Buffalo, New York.  Bufkit is terrific for analyzing model data and displaying precipitation type.  I took the 00z NAM data from this evening and loaded it into Bufkit and it looks like we'll see a rain/snow mix Monday night beginning around 6pm and switching to all snow sometime after midnight.  Snow will most likely linger through Tuesday morning.   Snow is indicated by blue and rain is displayed by green.  At the bottom of the graphic is the time (read from right to left).  There is not much question on whether this system will create snow.  I think that will happen.  I do not think it will cause travel issues because the ground temperatures as I've mentioned are too warm.  In fact - the air temperatures should remain just slightly above freezing.  I do think it will pretty to look at as it falls early Tuesday.

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com

Snow Returns to the Forecast

You've probably heard the chatter on the street - snow!!!  Depending on who you talk to - you might hear forecast ranging from nothing to 3 inches.  Let's get right down to the details.  Our forecast models here at Fox 6 are getting a better handle on the rain and snow setup over the next several days.  It appears the rain will begin early Sunday morning and remain with us through at least Monday.  The question is what happens after that.  A deepening area of low pressure will move across Alabama and bring with it some very cold temperatures.  Models traditionally have a tough time handling these cold-core lows.  They tend to cause rapid temperature drops and can produce short bursts of snowfall.

The 4km Microcast Computer Model here at Fox 6 is showing rainfall Sunday.

 

Take a look at Monday.  You can see the moisture on the west side of the low.  It's this moisture that will likely result in some snowfall.  Areas to the north of Highway 278 and West of I-65 will likely see the highest amounts of snowfall. 

Our VIPIR model is indicating a bulleye somewhere around Memphis.  In fact - we could see snowfall amounts in excess of 3.6" in North Mississippi by Tuesday PM.

This amount of snowfall is impressive by late November standards.  However - the ground will be wet from weekend rainfall and soil temperatures are holding in the mid 50s.  It's going to be very difficult for anything to stick with the exception of the highest elevations.

The best timeframe for snowfall is between 9pm and 8am Tuesday.  Lows Tuesday morning will be in the mid 30s with highs reaching the mid 40s. 

We'll keep you updated.

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
james.dice@wbrc.com

 

 

 

A Little Snow in the Forecast

It looks like the rain will hold off until late tonight.  But - once it gets here it will last through at least Monday morning.  This is a fairly powerful system - not for severe weather, but for heavy rain and even some Winter weather.  We're not talking about "shut-the-city down" Winter weather.  I expect areas of North of I-20 to see a few snow showers Monday.  Ground temperatures as well as air temperatures will not be favorable for anything to stick.  However, the temperatures about 1,000ft off the ground will be cold enough to produce snow.

In the short-term - expect a partly cloudy Saturday with temperatures reaching around 70.  We're not expecting much of a cool off tonight.  For those heading to the Iron Bowl, the forecast still looks on track with cloudy skies and temperatures around 68. 

We'll wake up to rain on Sunday.  This system is a slow mover and a real soaker so expect widespread rain throughout the state and lasting into Monday.  Things start to get interesting thanks to a cold core low developing.  This type systems essentially generate their own cold air with moisture wrapping around.  The low will likely produce the brief opportunity at snowfall late Sunday into Monday.  Skies will remain mostly cloudy on Monday with highs only in the mid 40s.

Have a great Saturday!

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com

Snow is Not Likely...

I mentioned on social media and on-air last night the possibility of a few snow flurries late Sunday into Monday.  My inbox filled up.  Well, I think I spoke too soon.  Today's forecast runs suggest no snow for Alabama.  In fact, I don't think we'll even see a flurry.  Models yesterday depicted a closed-low right over the state.  These type lows can create their own cold air and with the right amount of moisture often produce snow shower or flurries.  The GFS indicates more of a typical trough with the moisture out-pacing the colder air.  The images below show the GFS model output for precipitation and also the critical thickness levels.  By the time, the thickness values are south enough to support snowfall - the moisture has moved to the east.  If we do see a few flurries - that would likely be in higher elevations and areas to the north of I-20.

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com

Record Northeast Snowstorm

A rare early Nor'Easter affected the Northeast United States over the past several days, dumping record amounts of snow across parts of New England. The National Weather Service comments that western Massachussetts into southern New Hampshire were among the hardest hit areas. Peru, Massachussetts received an astounding 32" of snow, while Jeffrey, New Hampshire received 31.4". Also, New York Central Park's 2.9" of snow was the first time since records began in 1869 that an inch or more of snow has fallen in the month of October. Even places like Newark, NJ received over 5" of snow.

The complete summary from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center can be found here: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

Isaac Williams
Intern Meteorologist
Fox 6 Weather

Snow in the Smokies

This picture was sent to me from friend and fellow pilot Butch Munroe.  He took the picture at an elevation of 5,048ft at Newfound Gap in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park.  It's a very scenic view with snow even in the trees.  You can see how the mountains and the orographic effects are causing the clouds to develop in the Mountains.  Annual snowfall at Newfound Gap is from 43.5" to 106" (from 1991-2005).  The area has about 19 snowy days per year.

Maybe Butch will head into Gatlinburg and eat one of those huge corndogs for me?

If you want to send pictures to us here at Fox 6 - send to pix@wbrc.com.

James-Paul Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
james.dice@wbrc.com