WBRC Weather

A Break in the Rain - Hello Sunshine

We'll be under the influence of high pressure through the foreseable future.  Expect plenty of sunshine with slightly cooler temperatures.  Friday afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 70s.  You'll be most suprised by a brief cool snap Saturday morning.  Temperatures will fall into the upper 40s.  It still looks like the weather will be warm enough for the beach, lake, and the BBQ grill.

The cold front that came through today will reach all the way to South Florida for the weekend.  If you have any plans for travel in the Southeast the weather will be fantastic....few clouds and no rain.

By the way, the official NOAA Hurricane Forecast was released today.  The forecast is indicating above average activity in the Atlantic.  The average number of storms each year is 12.  Keep in mind, the forecast only predicts intensity and number and not whether or not we'll see a landfall.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Watching Strong Storms Approach West Alabama

For now - it looks like the NWS will issue Special Weather Statements on the storms moving into West Alabama.  Over the last hour there have been few damage reports in Mississippi.  The max wind gust reported in Starkville was around 35mph.

As you can see from this radar snapshot the storms are almost at the Alabama line and will soon impact Marion, Lamar, and Pickens Counties.  The primary threat will be gusty winds and intense lightning.  The storms should remain under severe weather limits.  But - I will warn you they will be noisy storms.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Turning Hot and Some Spotty Thunderstorms On Thursday

The ridge of high pressure that has brought triple digit temperatures to the Plains is moving our weay and it means business.  The temperature trend through next week will keep us in the mid 80s and possibly even the upper 80s by the end of the weekend.  The average temperature is 81 degrees.  I would expect areas in West Alabama to reach 90 by Sunday.

As far as rain goes on Thursday, our forecast model is predicting the best chance during the afternoon hours.  Most of the rain should track just to the north of Birmingham during the afternoon.  Some of the rain could begin as early as late morning, but most will move in during the afternoon.  I'm still not predicting a widespread rain-event.  We'll see an almost Summertime pattern of pop up thunderstorms.  No severe weather is expected with this next system. 

The weekend is still looking generally dry and warm.  Highs both Saturday and Sunday will reach the mid to upper 80s with a few showers/storms returning early next week.  I recommend you find a pool or perhaps make a trip to the beach.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Warmer Temps are Coming

A large dome of air pressure will control our weather over the next few days.  This will mean warm (if not hot temperatures) by Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 80s in a few parts of West Alabama.  A weak trough will track across the state on Thursday and this will bring clouds and a few showers to the area.  The good news - no severe weather is expected.  The weekend forecast looks like a winner with highs in the mid to upper 80s and little to no rain in the forecast.

The Hangout Music Festival is this weekend in Gulf Shores.  The forecast looks fantastic with only an occasional thunderstorm during the afternoon.  Highs will reach the upper 70s.

In the longer range forecast - we could see a few showers and storms next week.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Rain Likely, but Not a Washout

We had overcast skies across much of the region today with a few glimpses of sunshine.  Showers have been spotty today with most of the rain this morning falling in the western sections of our viewing area.  We saw some additional rain in East Alabama toward the afternoon/evening.  Saturday will be a bit wetter tomorrow as the main cold front comes through the area.

The additional cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures in the 70s Saturday.

The heaviest rainfall will occur south of I-20 tomorrow afternoon.  Severe weather is not expected, but we could see a few heavy downpours.

The best chance of rain will likely be between 11am and 5pm.

 

By Sunday morning at 7am, we'll see mostly clear skies with temperatures in the 50s.

The longer range forecast appears to be dry with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s next week.  Plenty of sunshine is expected for early next week.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
@jpdice_Fox6

 

Heaviest Rain Tracks South

Forecast models are continuing to indicate the heaviest rain tracking south of Birmingham this afternoon.  Thunderstorms have been encountering more stable air this afternoon and transitioning to just rain.

While most of us will see at least some rain through Saturday, the heaviest rain and thunderstorms will impact areas south of I-20.  We could see a few severe storms south of Montgomery, but the overall threat is very low through the weekend.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6 

Rather Calm Severe Weather Season So Far...

This is a rather interesting graphic showing how many days since the last tornado warning for CWAs or County Warning Areas across the country.  It has been 28 days since the Birmingham National Weather Service has issued a tornado warning for our area.  We've had a rather quiet severe weather season this year with a few lower-end tornadoes reported in Pickens, Winston, and Cullman Counties this year.   It has been 28 days since the Huntsville office issued a tornado warning and eight days since the Mobile office issued a tornado warning.

While tornadoes can and do happen every month of the year, the frequency typically goes down considerably during the Summer months.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6 

Temperatures Climbing and Rain for Weekend

We'll start the morning off with patchy fog and chilly temperatures.  Expect lows in the lower 70s with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s during the early afternoon.

Forecast models are indicating rain chances climbing slightly by Thursday with the best chances of rain coming Friday and Saturday.  It's possible we could see a few strong to severe storms ahead of the weekend cold front.  If you have plans Friday, the best chance of rain will come during the late afternoon and evening and last through Saturday.

Sunday appears to be a different story with mostly sunny skies and somewhat cooler temperatures.  Highs will reach the lower to mid 70s during the afternoon.  Morning low temperatures will continue to remain in the upper 40s during the early week.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

 

A Rainy and Cool Weekend

This is going to be one of the coldest and rainiest starts to May.  While we won't break any records, it's certainly going to be chilly tomorrow.  Forecast models have the rain moving in tonight.  Some of the heaviest rain will occur after 10pm and last during the overnight. 

I feel confident we'll see a few breaks in the rain Saturday afternoon - especially West of I-65.  Temperatures will only reach the 50s across the eastern portion of our viewing area.  We will likely reach the lower 60s tomorrow for Tuscaloosa and portions of West Alabama.

The "pesky" upper-level low will continue to keep rain in the forecast through at least Monday.

Talladega Outlook:  I think Saturday's race will likely happen with little problems.  The forecast is looking fairly dry after 2pm.  Temperatures will only reach the mid 50s so make sure you bring a light jacket.  The forecast for Sunday is a bit trickier.  The morning will be mainly dry with rain and clouds returning for the afternoon/evening.  Highs on Sunday will reach the lower 60s.

Have a great weekend!

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

 

It's Just a Yucky Weather Setup

As I was told this afternoon by a co-worker, "yucky" is not a meteorological term.  But, I couldn't really find anything that describes the weekend weather as well as that rather simplistic term.  We've really got a double-whammy moving through the area.

1) We have a strong cold front moving through. 2) The old weatherman's friend - the upper-level low is forecast to move across Alabama.  The combination of these two features will mean clouds, rain, and even a few thunderstorms.

The good news is instability is lacking enough to keep our severe weather potential very, very low.  In fact, the biggest threat will be possibly some heavy rainfall.  I'm expecting 1-2" of rainfall late tomorrow night into Saturday.  For most of the Fox 6 viewing area, we should be dry through at least 2pm.  Rain chances will increase during the late afternoon and evening.

The GFS and ECM are both showing an upper-level low tracking just to the north of us.  This low will mean colder than average temperatures combined with clouds and rain.

This setup will mean plenty of rain even through Sunday.  We'll see some breaks in the rain Sunday, but I do think the race at Talladega will have some issues with the weather.

Temperatures Friday through Sunday will remain in the mid to upper 60s.  I expect overnight lows in the 40s through the weekend.  We'll gradually see some warmer temperatures next week.  Highs will near 80 by Tuesday.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6