The weather story tonight is again rain. What is it with Monday's and wet weather? Fortunately, the rain today has been less impactful than last week's mess. Of course, the saturating rain last week is the reason we're concerned with at least some minor flooding tonight and early tomorrow. The severe weather threat will remain far to our south. You may hear a few claps of thunder and see a little lightning, but that will be it. The heaviest rainfall is set to clear out by midnight with lingering showers through the overnight. Skies will be cloudy with temperatures in the mid 40s during the drive to work or school in the morning.
The clouds and rain will prevent us from being able to view as total lunar eclipse tonight. You might have heard some in the media talking about a blood moon. If skies were clear, you would be able to witness the eclipse around 2:06am Central.
Once the rain clears, the next big weather story is the cold temperatures. We're talking about freezing temperatures in many parts of our area by Wednesday morning. Highs will only reach the upper 40s to lower 50s Tuesday afternoon.
It will be also blustery Tuesday. We can expect a north wind ranging form 20-25mph during the afternoon. The RPM model is indicating temperatures will hover around freezing Wednesday morning with a chance of patchy frost. It will be a good idea to cover the tender plants before you head to bed tomorrow night. Some of the colder locations will include Cullman, Gadsden, Oneonta, and Centre.
While this kind of cold is unusual for April, it's happened before around here. The average last freezt is around April 1, but you can see from the graphic 1986 was a rather chilly Spring for Birmingham.
Temperatures are expected to moderate a bit Wednesday afternoon with highs in the lower 60s. Rain and storms are possible Friday. We should reach the 70s again by the weekend with increasing clouds. We could see a few showers both Saturday and Sunday, but your Easter weekend does not look like a washout at this point. I've included a slight chance of rain in the forecast both days. It's still a bit early and forecast models don't exactly have a good handle on the precipitation chances. The GFS was hinting a some heavier rain for Sunday.
Have a great evening and watch Fox6 for the updated weather information tonight regarding any flooding potential.
Fox6 Chief Meteorologist
Off and on showers will continue through the afternoon and there may even be a few hour lull before the second round that develops across Mississippi and Louisiana moves in this evening and overnight.
Widespread flooding isn't likely but if storms train over the same areas then flash flooding is possible and that's why a flash flood watch remains in effect through Tuesday PM.
HOUR BY HOUR ROUND 2 FORECAST
THE LATEST TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST
-Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
Pockets of moderate to heavy rain continues to fall across Alabama with plenty more moisture in Mississippi to move through. Still expecting two rounds and round one this morning will continue through noon and taper off from west to east. The second round fires up ahead of the approaching cold front and impacts Alabama from west to east after 5pm through Tuesday morning.
Heavy rainfall is the main threat today and the threat for severe weather is much lower now for this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has removed the slight risk for severe storms. 1-2" widespread amounts this morning with locally up to 3" and an additional 1-2" possible with the second round this evening.
Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and a flash flood watch is in effect until 1PM Tuesday. Minor river flooding is possible, flooding of roadways by creeks and streams possible and ponding in urban areas and poor drainage areas likely.
Remember to never try and drive through flood waters!
So far we have not had any flash flood warnings issued and lets hope that trend continues...
We'll continue to keep you posted throughout the duration of this event.
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
Computer models all agree that widespread amounts over 1" likely today! A quick scroll through and you'll see.
Has moved in across west Alabama and spreading east and northeastward very slowly. Radar estimates over 2" so far and climbing in Hamilton as of 5:30AM. The biggest concern with round number one is heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect until 1PM Tuesday and that means that conditions may develop that leads to flash flooding. The heaviest precipitation this morning will likely fall between 5AM-11AM and then lighter rain through the early PM hours before a lull develops from west to east.
RAINFALL FORECAST: The flow right now is from the southwest and that will allow rain to train over the same areas and without a big push from the west, the movement of the precipitation will be slow which may result in flash flooding. Rainfall amounts will range from 1-3" with localized higher amounts.
FLOODING: 1. Rivers forecast to reach stages of minor flooding. 2. Flooding likely along roadways in low lying areas. 3. Flooding roadways near creeks and streams. 4. Ponding in urban areas and poor drainage areas.
Fires up along the cold front this afternoon that's still a couple states to the west. West Alabama, west of I-65 will have some time to destabilize this afternoon and storms could be strong to severe as they move in during the late afternoon and evening hours. Main threats will be flash flooding and damaging winds along a squall line. Any discrete cells that develop could rotate so a low end tornado threat exists along with large hail. Round two mainly impacts the state from 7PM-7AM.
HOUR BY HOUR FORECAST
Temperatures today will start in the 60s and warm into the lower 70s this afternoon.
Tuesday is going to be a windy and significantly colder day with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s.
Frosty conditions likely by Wednesday morning.
Next chance for rain is on Friday.
Easter weekend is looking mainly dry and pleasant.
Forecast details on Good Day Alabama!
Fox6 Meteorologist Jill Gilardi
2 ROUNDS OF STORMS!
The first arrives from west to east after 4am and primary threats with the first round in the morning will be strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Storms will be strongest across Mississippi and tend to weaken as they move across Alabama where the atmosphere is fairly stable.
The second round takes place during the afternoon and evening hours. Upper level support for strong to severe storms will be present but instability is the big question. The atmosphere will need to be monitored closely on Monday afternoon and storm severity potential will be dependent on the first wave of storm affects on the atmosphere. If severe storms develop the primary threats will be heavy rainfall and damaging winds. Secondary threats will be large hail and tornadoes.
Models continue to increase the amount of rainfall potential across Alabama. Widespread amounts will range from 1" to 3" but locally up to 4-6" can't be ruled out. The RPM model shows a bulls-eye near Tuscaloosa. We'll have to wait and see if the National Weather Service issues a Flash Flood Watch. Overall, the rivers still under flood warnings will be prolonged through much of the upcoming week due to the expected heavy rainfall.
The wintry side...
Much colder air filters in from northwest to southeast on Tuesday causing temperatures to dip into the 40s during the morning hours and rebounding only into the 50s during the afternoon. On top of that, strong northwesterly winds will make it feel even colder. Showers linger through Tuesday morning before exiting eastward.
The coldest air settles in on Wednesday morning and the area will be flirting with freezing conditions. Heads up along and north of I-20 for lows in the lower 30s which could harm some sensitive outdoor plants.
LATE WEEK AND EASTER WEEKEND:
Dry and below normal on Wednesday and Thursday.
Showers return on Friday.
Dry and pleasant over Easter weekend!
We'll continue to keep you posted on the active weather ahead!
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms on Monday. Two rounds of showers and storms will have to be watched closely for the possibility of severe weather. Round 1 as it arrives across west Alabama on Monday morning and round 2 as it arrives across west Alabama on Monday evening.
THREATS: Damaging winds, large hail and locally heavy rainfall. The wind profile shows unidirectional winds during the evening hours and enough wind shear for severe storms capable of producing damaging winds. The wet bulb zero height is low enough as well for hail to form and allowing it to reach the surface before melting.
RAINFALL: Widespread amounts around 1". Better chance for 2" or locally higher amounts along and west of I-65. Additional rainfall will prolong river flooding.
HOUR-BY-HOUR TIMING OF STORMY WEATHER:
West Alabama: By 6AM
Central Alabama: By 9AM
East Alabama: By 11AM
Second Round: West Alabama by 6PM
So both the AM commute and PM commute on Monday may be impacted by strong storms and certainly heavy rainfall producers that will slow you down on the roadways. West Alabama will be impacted most during the critical travel times.
That's the latest from the Fox 6 Storm Warn Center!
We will keep you posted on the upcoming threat for rain and storms both on-line and on Fox 6.
Have a great weekend and enjoy the warmth and mild weather.
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
We are tracking our next storm system that's currently moving in across the Pacific Northwest and will take shape on Saturday afternoon across the Central Plains. Severe storms are possible across northern Kansas and Missouri as well as southern Nebraska and Iowa. The system continues to gather strength and move eastward on Sunday and the threat for severe storms is even greater across southern Missouri and points southward. Storms will be strongest to our west on Sunday and then weaken as they track eastward towards Alabama. While a strong storm can't be ruled out on Monday, widespread severe weather is not expected at this time.
MODEL COMPARISON REGARDING TIMING OF RAIN/STORMS
The first model you see below is the GFS and titled Next Chance For Storms and the model below that is the other long range model called the EURO. Both models agree that the activity will start to impact the western portion of the state by 5AM Monday. Models from that point on differ on speed. The GFS is much faster and shows the rain exiting by Tuesday morning, while the EURO is much slower and keeps the wet weather around through much of Tuesday. We'll continue to fine tune this forecast over the weekend as we get a better sample of the developing storm system.
We are expecting another dose of rain but much less than what occurred last Sunday into Monday. Widespread amounts around 1" likely and potentially as high as 2" to the south of I-20/west of I-65. The additional rainfall could prolong river flooding through early next week, especially south of I-20 where river flood warnings continue. If you plan on getting on a river this weekend, to kayak or canoe, be sure to find out if it's safe or not. The rainfall is going to be beneficial though for allergy sufferers and will drop the pollen count considerably by Tuesday.
Enjoy the above normal and dry weather this weekend because it's going to be much cooler next week and not dry again until Wednesday. Northern Alabama may even be dealing with some frost by Wednesday morning.
Well that's it in a nutshell.... if you have any questions feel free to contact me and be sure to watch Fox 6.
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
Tornado watch continues for all of the counties shaded in yellow, basically from I-20 and points southward. The area of greatest concern is concentrated along and especially south of the warm front. In that zone, storms could quickly rotate and potentially produce tornadoes. The atmosphere is ripe for it in that vicinity but we have yet to see tornado warnings in Alabama.
You can clearly see where the warm front is located by looking at the temperature and dew point maps below. The counties we are most concerned for potential spin ups is from Greene to Bibb to Clanton to Coosa to Chambers and points southward. If the warm front were to move further northward then the threat level increases as well.
The biggest threat so far with this storm system has been heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. There are numerous counties under flash flood warnings. Already we have seen rainfall estimates ranging from 2-6" with several more inches expected before all is said and done. Flash flooding is occurring or imminent in those areas. Heard of impassible roadways and water rescues going on at times. PLEASE DON'T DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY!
We will continue to monitor storms closely and keep you updated if any warnings are issued. Allow extra travel time this morning due to heavy rainfall and flooding.
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
Low pressure centered across Louisiana continues to track northeastward and shifting a warm front northward. The storms to the north of the front have been mainly elevated in nature and have been mainly strong wind and heavy rainfall producers.
What develops south of the warm front has the best chance of being tornadic tonight. There is currently a tornado watch across southern Mississippi and Alabama. The Storm Prediction Center may issue a watch further northward depending on the evolution of the warm front.
In the short term, the biggest weather threat is flash flooding. Already 2-3" has fallen across Tuscaloosa, Pickens, Greene and Sumter county and an additional 2-3" is likely over the next few hours. Remember, turn around and don't drown if you approach a flooded roadway. Walker, Jefferson, Lamar and Fayette counties now under a flash flood warning.
We'll continue to update you as warranted!
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist and Wes Wyatt Fox 6 Meteorologist
Look for updates on social media as well....
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