WBRC Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 11pm

Heaviest Rain Tracks South

Forecast models are continuing to indicate the heaviest rain tracking south of Birmingham this afternoon.  Thunderstorms have been encountering more stable air this afternoon and transitioning to just rain.

While most of us will see at least some rain through Saturday, the heaviest rain and thunderstorms will impact areas south of I-20.  We could see a few severe storms south of Montgomery, but the overall threat is very low through the weekend.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6 

Rather Calm Severe Weather Season So Far...

This is a rather interesting graphic showing how many days since the last tornado warning for CWAs or County Warning Areas across the country.  It has been 28 days since the Birmingham National Weather Service has issued a tornado warning for our area.  We've had a rather quiet severe weather season this year with a few lower-end tornadoes reported in Pickens, Winston, and Cullman Counties this year.   It has been 28 days since the Huntsville office issued a tornado warning and eight days since the Mobile office issued a tornado warning.

While tornadoes can and do happen every month of the year, the frequency typically goes down considerably during the Summer months.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6 

It's Just a Yucky Weather Setup

As I was told this afternoon by a co-worker, "yucky" is not a meteorological term.  But, I couldn't really find anything that describes the weekend weather as well as that rather simplistic term.  We've really got a double-whammy moving through the area.

1) We have a strong cold front moving through. 2) The old weatherman's friend - the upper-level low is forecast to move across Alabama.  The combination of these two features will mean clouds, rain, and even a few thunderstorms.

The good news is instability is lacking enough to keep our severe weather potential very, very low.  In fact, the biggest threat will be possibly some heavy rainfall.  I'm expecting 1-2" of rainfall late tomorrow night into Saturday.  For most of the Fox 6 viewing area, we should be dry through at least 2pm.  Rain chances will increase during the late afternoon and evening.

The GFS and ECM are both showing an upper-level low tracking just to the north of us.  This low will mean colder than average temperatures combined with clouds and rain.

This setup will mean plenty of rain even through Sunday.  We'll see some breaks in the rain Sunday, but I do think the race at Talladega will have some issues with the weather.

Temperatures Friday through Sunday will remain in the mid to upper 60s.  I expect overnight lows in the 40s through the weekend.  We'll gradually see some warmer temperatures next week.  Highs will near 80 by Tuesday.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   525 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   
   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
     NORTHWEST GEORGIA
   
   * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 525 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
     CDT.
   
   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
     SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF
   HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM
   ALABAMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
   
   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

Rain Returns this Week

I hope you enjoy Tuesday because Wednesday looks to be a real washout.  Right now, we're in between systems with mostly clear skies.  Temperatures tonight will fall into the lower 50s across much of the region with Northeast Alabama seeing temperatures in the upper 40s.  An approaching cold front will mean a good chance of rain and even some thunderstorms as early as Wednesday morning for areas of West Alabama.

Rain is expected to become more widespread during the afternoon and early evening.

Fortunately, it does not appear we'll see any widespread severe weather with this system.

While we may see an isolated strong thunderstorm the dynamics do not support anything real significant.  I'm expecting a slight cool down on Thursday with drier air and sunshine through Friday.

Weekend Outlook: It appears we'll see scattered thunderstorms in the forecast both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Have a great evening!

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

Evening Forecast Update

I was hoping we could report an entirely dry weekend with sunshine and mild temperatures.  Well, the forecast has changed a bit, but I'm still not expecting a complete washout.  Temperatures will fall tonight into mid 40s with mostly clear skies.  I expect the sky to remain clear through Saturday evening.  Expect highs in the mid 70s.  Clouds are expected to stream in across the region Saturday evening.  I doubt we'll see rain until late Sunday, but skies will continue to cloud up a bit.

Sunday should be cloudy for most of the day.  Our RPM model is showing the rain staying mainly to our south.

During the afternoon, the best chance of rain will remain south of I-20.  Stronger storms will remain south of Montgomery.  For folks with beach plans along the Gulf Coast, the weather will be ugly on Sunday with a good chance of rain and thunderstorms.  A few storms could be severe late weekend.

The good news about the recent rainfall and expected rainfall this weekend is a decrease in pollen.  The pollen forecast is showing another spike on Saturday with Oak, Juniper, and Sycamore as our primary pollens.

Long Range Forecast: We can expect highs in the lower 80s throughout much of next week.  This is almost like a Summertime pattern with scattered showers and storms.  A strong cold front arrives Thursday and could bring some strong storms.  It's still too early to say how strong.  We will watch.

Have a great weekend!

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

 

 

Watching for Severe Weather Potential Thursday

This system keeps getting slower and slower.  First of all, it looks like our morning commute will be cloudty and dry Thursday with rain beginning to enter West Alabama by 9am.

The rain and thunderstorms during the morning should generally be beneath severe weather limits.  The energy helicity levels remain fairly low during the morning hours.  Storms should cross I-65 and the Birmingham-Metro area between 12-2pm.   Winds should be undirectional and this will limit our tornado potential.  I do have growing concern we could see some strong to severe storms after 1pm and lasting through 5pm.  The instability is expected to increase with CAPE levels increasing to over 1,500 j/kg during the afternoon.  This enhanced severe threat would mainly be for East Alabama including  Pell City, Talladega, Anniston, Gadsden, and Centre.

My concern is for areas of East of I-65.  The storms should roll through during the peak of afternoon heating.  The primary threat will be high winds (over 50mph) and localized flooding.  I can't rule out an isolated tornado threat.  This is essentially going to be a line of storms moving across the state.

It's possible we could see some lingering storms through 7pm for extreme East Alabama.  We will continue to watch this system evolve.  I would fully expect at least a severe thunderstorm watch to be issued by tomorrow mid-morning.

We'll continue to update you.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
@jpdice_Fox6

Watching Severe Weather Potential

We're starting to getting a bit of a better idea about the mid-late week severe weather threat.  It's still a bit early in our analysis, but this appears to have the makings for another QLCS (line of storms).  We could be looking at a system similar to March 18th.  I always stress just because the tornado threat isn't extreme - it doesn't mean you cannot have widespread damage.

Both the NAM and GFS models are indicating the best timeframe on this system for its Alabama arrival will be early Thursday morning.  I still think the line of storms will still be in Arkansas and Mississippi Wednesday night.

Based on the thermodynamics, I'd expect winds over 80mph, small to moderate hail, and frequent lightning.  The tornado threat is still in the moderate to low category.  I think the best chance of tornad development would reside within the line of storms itself.  The Energy-Helicity index is still not suggestive of a tornado outbreak.  The GFS model indicates the line of storms pushing through before noon on Thursday.

This is a system that must be watched.  Afterall, we're in one of our peak months for severe weather here in Alabama.  It doesn't really matter if the damage is caused by thunderstorms or tornadoes - damage is damage and can be severe whether or not we see tornado development.  We will watch carefully.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6 

Weekend Severe Threat

Once again, we will be watching for the possibility of severe storms across parts of our state.  At this point, forecast models are trending more toward South Alabama and at the worst just south of I-20.  The forecast really depends on just how far north the warm front will travel.  The farther north the warm front - the better the chances for more widespread severe storms.

The NAM model is showing the highest levels of CAPE or instability I 20 southward.   As you probably know, the higher the CAPE value the better the chances for strong storms.  With values over 3,000 j/kg - there is certainly the instability to bring high winds and hail to the state.  If the warm front lifts more to the north, we would see a better chance of severe storms across the Fox 6 viewing area.

For tornadoes, we need another ingredient and that's wind shear.  The wind shear is not quite as impressive.  This would limit the tornado threat, but still would not rule out damaging winds similar to last Monday.  We always stress severe thunderstorms often do more damage than tornadoes.

For folks that are spending some time along the Gulf Coast - including Orange Beach and Gulf Shores - I think we'll see some widespread severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening.  

Right now - the Energy Helicity Index - another tool I use when forecasting severe weather is indicating the best chance of rain and storms in South Alabama.

The Bottom Line: We will see rain off and on through today with an occasional thunderstorm.  The period of time to monitor for severe storms will be from 2pm until 10pm Saturday.  In the Fox 6 viewing area, the counties with the highest potential for severe storms will be Hale, Greene, Perry, Chilton, Coosa, and Tallapoosa.  South Shelby County could also be at a small risk tomorrow afternoon. 

This is a weather situation subject to some significant changes so stay with Fox 6 for updates throughout today and the weekend.

J-P Dice
Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist
jdice@wbrc.com
Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6