As a meteorologist, just before and during severe weather events I typically look over the mesoanalysis page provided by the Storm Prediction Center. Here is a link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18
Radar, surface winds and pressure lines:
Wind shear, flow at the middle of the atmosphere:
We are not under a severe thunderstorm watch yet but that will likely change for part of the Fox 6 viewing area within the next few hours.
Keep up with the latest watch and warning info through the WBRC Weather App!
Stay weather aware,
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
A large portion of the Fox 6 viewing area remains under a slight risk (15% chance) for severe storms. Basically along and north of a line from Fayette to Alexander City stands the best chance of seeing severe weather this evening.
All eyes are on the radar and for storm development to our north this afternoon.
Model data continues to suggest development occurring across Tennessee within the next hour or two and sagging southeastward with time. Again, this is only a model and depending on what actually occurs, we may have to adjust the impact time frame and location.
The best chance for storms is between the hours of 5pm and 11pm. The counties we are most concerned about for severe weather include Cullman, Blount, Etowah, Cherokee, St. Clair and Calhoun counties. Everyone needs to be weather alert this evening whether you are under a slight or marginal risk.
Once storms develop we will have a better handle on timing, location and potential threats. Please check back for additional updates on social media and through the WBRC Weather App.
In the meantime, be careful in the heat but know that you still have most of the afternoon to do what you need to do without having to worry about storms. If you have any loose yard items outside, you might want to just bring them inside and take down any porch umbrellas.
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
It has been a very active morning for areas north of I-20, especially along the highway 278 corridor. The heaviest rainfall has occurred across Marion county with estimates over 6 inches.
Rain and storms continue to build to the west and move east across the same areas. Training storms means flooding will be possible. If you must travel today, expect delays due to wet weather and be prepared to find an alternate route if you encounter flooded roadways.
North Mississippi, west and east Tennessee, north Alabama and north and central Georgia are all under a flash flood watch. Not only will storms be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding, but there is also a threat for severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts. If you have any tents up or large porch umbrellas, you might want to take down today just in case strong winds blow through. Any other loose yard items, you should bring inside as well.
It will be tough to squeeze in a long duration outdoors today because of scattered to numerous showers and storms developing and tracking from west to east. The threat will continue through the evening hours and may impact the viewing of fireworks.
The active pattern doesn't let up this entire Fourth of July weekend and there will be several chances for showers and storms both in the morning and afternoon hours. Have a plan B just in case you have to take things indoors for several hours due to passing storms. As of now, there is a 30% chance for showers and storms for Thunder on the Mountain.
We will continue to keep you posted online, on Fox 6 and on the WBRC Weather App.
If you capture crazy storm pictures or videos be sure to submit them on the WBRC Weather App.
Thanks and have a safe holiday weekend!
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
We've got some stormy weather in the forecast tonight. Storms have been moving incredibly slow through the evening. Radar imagery as of around 9:30pm is indicating the some of the heaviest rainfall now beginning to impact Shelby and St. Clair Counties.
A very moist tropical airmass is in place. If you've been outside today, you probably noticed just how sticky the air felt. This moist air is the fuel for thunderstorms. Instability levels are reaching between 1,000 and 1,500 j/kg CAPE. That's fairly high - especially at night. You can clearly see the areas contoured with the highest instability. Storms moving into these regions will produce heavy rain, intense lightning, and some winds over 50mph.
We have not seen much hail with the thunderstorms at all this evening. Dual-pol data from the Shelby County NEXRAD is indicating mainly very heavy rainfall. That's why we're seeing all green with the hydroclass product. Hail would be indicated on this graphic by red spots - which we're not seeing. Dual-pol is an incredible data tool for showing the difference between precipitation types.
Rest of tonight: As Meteorologist Wes Wyatt has been reporting, most storms will remain below severe weather limits, but some strong winds and heavy rainfall is likely through the overnight. It is possible we could see some localized flooding in some areas. Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and throughout much of the week. We're in for a fairly wet setup over the next 5-7 days.
Fox6 Chief Meteorologist
The most active weather on this Sunday morning is focused across Mississippi. We expect showers and storms to continue to develop and move southwest to northeast with time at about 10mph to 20 mph. After 3PM, activity will be most numerous and it will be difficult in some areas to enjoy the outdoors for a long period of time. We will be monitoring storms closely because there is a small threat for severe weather. Storms will have a chance to grow to a strong or severe level where the most sunshine occurs.
The Storm Prediction Center has Alabama under a marginal risk for severe storms this Sunday afternoon and evening. That means a few small bands and clusters of storms could intensify enough to produce marginally severe wind gusts, hail or perhaps a brief tornado. Most storms will be below severe limits and produce lightning and heavy rainfall.
The greatest chance for a brief tornado will be in a zone where there is a little more shear, lift and spin in the atmosphere. That zone includes northwest Alabama, northern Mississippi and southwest Tennessee. If you live in Marion or Lamar county, stay especially weather aware today just in case a warning is issued. Keep up with the latest alerts via the Fox 6 Weather App.
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
I totally recommend visiting my fan page: www.facebook.com/JillGilardiMeteorologist and watching my video on how to operate the Fox 6 weather app. It is very useful this time of year and you'll see why.
Have a great weekend!
First off, Happy Mother's Day to all of the moms out there, including those with fur babies!
The Fox 6 viewing area squeezes out one more mainly quiet day. There is only a slight chance for a few pop up showers and storms across far east Alabama. Temperatures will once again be on the toasty side and quickly rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Tropical Storm Ana made landfall early this morning and has weakened to a minimal tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It will continue slowly northward and weaken to a depression today and then curve northeastward early in the week. Despite some weakening, storms spiraling in off the Atlantic could produce severe weather in North Carolina. There is a marginal risk across that area. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. The hurricane center said Ana is the earliest subtropical (or tropical) storm to form in the Atlantic basin since a previous Ana, in 2003.
The greatest concern for severe storms is once again across the Midwest on Mother's Day, but a little farther eastward. Storms are ongoing at this point in time and development northeastward with time across Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Iowa is expected. Storms will be capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The greatest tornado and hail threat is across the enhanced risk threat area.
Storms quickly fire up by lunchtime and folks better be weather aware across eastern Nebraska to western Missouri to western Arkansas. It's not going to be a good day to enjoy Mother's Day outside.
By late afternoon, the radar will be going bonkers with severe storms across the Midwest. The potent storm system responsible for the severe weather will continue shifting eastward tonight.
By the time the cold front associated with this storm system reaches the Tennessee River Valley, it won't have the kind of wind energy to work with to produce as much severe weather than previous days. The strongest storms on Monday afternoon will likely develop across north Mississippi, west Tennessee, west Kentucky and points northward. Storms may not have a ton of wind energy to work with farther eastward but there will be enough shear and instability for severe storms to potentially impact areas along and especially west of I-65.
The simulated radar for Monday afternoon and evening shows isolated to widely scattered development. That means most places will be storm-free. It's tough to pinpoint the exact location as to where storms will fire tomorrow, but this gives you an idea of the nature of what may form. Be weather aware and have a way to get weather warnings especially if you are going to be traveling or outside after 3pm until sunset.
If you haven't already, cut the grass because it might get a drink of water on Monday and a better chance on Tuesday. Model data agrees that Tuesday is the best chance for some rain. Most places will see about .10" to .20" of rainfall though some locations between Monday and Tuesday could see locally up to 1". It all depends on where storms set up on Monday evening.
The next best chance sets up on Friday and Saturday as another storm system moves in. A strong or severe pulse thunderstorm can't be ruled out but not the tornado producing type. All of the wind energy needed for storms like that will be once again across the Midwest. It seems like we dodged a bullet this spring in the severe storm and tornado department.
That's the latest from the Fox 6 Storm Warn Team!
Have a great rest of the weekend,
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist
Several rounds of severe storms impact parts of the Midwest on Saturday. Some of the strongest storms will fire up during the afternoon and evening hours across an enhanced threat zone which includes parts of Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Storms will be capable of producing very large and destructive hail, damaging winds and tornadoes along with flash flooding.
While intense storms are occurring across parts of the Midwest, we'll see mostly dry and hot conditions. Model data does suggest a few showers and storms developing today. We don't anticipate this activity to be severe nor long lasting if you happen to get under one of them. The model below shows the best chance for this activity across west Alabama and to the east of I-65. The best chance sets up after 1pm and lasts through 7pm.
A spotty afternoon shower can't be ruled out across east Alabama on Mother's Day, otherwise it's going to be another hot and muggy afternoon under a partly sunny sky. It will be a different story though across parts of the Central Plains where severe storms are likely. Some of the cities that could see the worst weather are: Omaha, Des Moines, Little Rock and Dallas. There is an enhanced risk for severe storms which includes those cities and surrounding areas.
By Monday, the system weakens considerably as it moves eastward. Severe storms will still be possible, but mainly west of Alabama. The counties that could experience severe storms before they weaken are: Marion, Lamar, Fayette, Winston, Walker, Tuscaloosa, Cullman, Pickens and Greene. The best chance for wet weather is after dark and into the day on Tuesday.
The pattern finally changes this upcoming week which will mean slightly cooler temperatures and off and on chances for showers and storms. Model data below gives you an idea as to the pattern ahead but it isn't our actual forecast. The long range data is still not in total agreement but we do have high confidence that will additional clouds and rain around that temperatures won't be as hot.
Now onto Ana, which transitioned from a subtropical storm into a tropical storm. Winds are sustained at 60 mph and the storm is moving slowly to the northwest towards land. Ana should make landfall late Saturday night as a strong tropical storm along the coast where the Carolinas meet.
That's the latest from Fox 6 Meteorologist Jill Gilardi!
Have a great and safe weekend!
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