Wes Wyatt and I had an interesting conversations last night. We were chatting about how in the weather business we're always asking what's next? What is the next big event? We have made it our mission to use science, technology, and experience to hopefully give you as much advance notice of impactful weather events as early as possible. Of course, we can't always do that. There's still an element of surprise when you're dealing with meteorology. However, technology and weather modeling has improved so much we're able to give you good long range look in many cases.
Two questions we keep hearing is 1) What's the weather going to be like on Christmas? 2) Is it going to be another really cold Winter?
In my attempt to answer those questions, I will begin with the next weather event on the horizon. This week looks pretty tame. The weekend looks mostly sunny and milder with highs around 60.
Tracking Rain: A stronger southern stream system will likely impact Alabama late Monday into Tuesday. This looks like a rain event - perhaps a heavy rain event. The GFS model has been indicating this possibility for days.
This is the GFS model output for Monday at noon local. As you can see the rain will be to our East across Mississippi at that time. We can expect widespread rainfall between 6-9pm that will likely continue overnight. Temperatures will be mild. Highs on Monday will reach the lower 60s.
This is the model output for Monday evening at 6pm.
What about a severe weather threat? I don't think so. We could hear a few claps of thunder in our southern counties because of increased instability, but overall the instability will be very low. Take a look at the CAPE values for Monday evening. CAPE is one of the key measurements for atmospheric instability.
What about the temperatures? Temperatures for the rest of the month will remain at either average values or slightly above average. This means the average low will be around 38-40 degrees with highs near 60 degrees.
Week of Christmas: Right now, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day appear to be mainly dry with a good bit of rain early in the week - around December 22nd. Temperatures on Christmas Day will likely be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with lows around 30.
December will likely become a bit more active with more rain and thunderstorm events. I doubt we will see a snow event. Temperatures appear a bit warm for that. It is possible we could see an episode of severe weather later in the month - a classic high shear and low instability event. This is based on the southern branch of the jetstream becoming a bit more active.
The Climate Prediction Center is still indicating below average temperatures in January and February.
I agree. Brace yourself - December will be fairly mild, but the really cold air will likely impact us around the first of the 2015.
Have a great afternoon!
Fox6 Chief Meteorologist