It's not a shocker that the medium range models differ on solutions for early next week. The evolution of the trough is in question. What happens at upper levels in the atmosphere determines what happens at the surface. Either way, both models hint at snow for north Alabama but nothing really for central at this time.
LET'S DO SOME COMPARING....
HERE'S WHAT THE GFS SHOWS MONDAY AT 6AM:
- A cold front is moving southward.
- Rain is the dominant precipitation type.
- Snowfall is confined to the northeastern corner of the state.
HERE IS WHAT THE EURO MODEL SHOWS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME:
- It shows low pressure developing to our west which would mean warmer temperatures in Alabama on Monday.
- Any snow accumulation would take place on Sunday night and it could occur as far south as north Alabama.
- There may be a small window of snow if this model solution were to pan out for Lamar, Marion, Winston counties.
NOW TAKE A LOOK AT THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM VIA THE GFS MODEL FOR TUESDAY MORNING:
- Exiting precipitation
- That snow accumulation across the northeastern corner is from the morning prior.
THE EURO MODEL FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE:
- A slower moving and developing storm system
- Wrap around moisture which would end as snow across north Alabama.
So we will either see some snow across northeast Alabama late Sunday night into Monday morning if the GFS pans out:
Or we will see a chance of snow late Sunday night across NW Alabama and wrap around snow across north Alabama on Tuesday morning if the EURO pans out.
So at this time, it looks like central Alabama misses the wintry part of this upcoming storm system unless something drastically changes. Keep checking back for daily updates as we track this developing storm system.
Jill Gilardi WBRC First Alert Certified Meteorologist