We are looking very far out into the future where computer model uncertainty increases but when both long range models show similar solutions we start to become more confident in the forecast. This far out, the chance for accumulating snow on the morning of Christmas Eve is very low in Alabama but looks possible further northward into Tennessee. Even though accumulating snow is not likely, what about the possibility of seeing some snowflakes?
So let us examine some forecast soundings and overviews to get a better idea as to whether the models are forecasting the lining up of below freezing air, moisture, lift and ice crystals.
FORECAST SOUNDING FOR BIRMINGHAM FOR 4AM ON THE 24TH:
What's happening? The atmosphere is cooling down though moisture and lift are exiting at upper levels of the atmosphere first. The window for a few flakes is very narrow and not as likely in Birmingham.
Overall, I think northeast Alabama could see a brief wet snowflake window on the morning of the 24th but none of the frozen precipitation will cause any problems on the roadways. Roadways will just be wet and it will be a windy day which you'll feel while traveling.
We'll update you as we near the holiday and especially if anything changes.
Thanks and feel free to ask questions,
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist