Tropical Storm Cristobal is moving slowly to the north-northwest near the southeastern Bahamas. Heavy rainfall is likely for the Turks and Caicos and portions of the Bahamas today. Current wind speeds are 45 mph and forecast models predict it strengthening into a stronger tropical storm later on this evening and into a hurricane either late Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
The spaghetti plots are still all over the place although the average of the tracks show the storm curving out to see. The track still could change and many factors need to come together at just the right time in order for this all to happen.
There are significant differences as shown below between the various National Hurricane Center models. The GFS and ensemble show a weaker and faster moving storm. In contrast, the ECMWF, UKMET, and NAVGEM models keep Cristobal a much stronger and slower moving cyclone over the next 72 hours. It looks like if this scenario pans out, a trough moving off the east coast by day 4-5 will allow Cristobal to move slowly northward and then accelerate off to the northeast. That solution seems more reasonable at this time.
We'll continue to keep you updated! Fox 6 is watching around the clock!
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist