WBRC Weather

Rain Chances Climbing for Weekend

We're getting ready for a wet weekend.  I think we'll dodge most of the rain tonight with only an increase in cloud cover.  Temperatures will remain mild this evening with overnight lows eventually dipping into the mid 50s overnight.  Rain chances will be highest tomorrow morning in Northwest Alabama including Marion County.  The NAM model is showing a mostly dry morning.


I expect the rain to become more widespread during the afternoon and evening as an upper-level disturbance moves across the area.  Fortunately, we will not experience severe weather with this system.  We'll mainly see cloudy skies and off and on rain and thunderstorms.  Highs Saturday will only reach the lower 70s.  Heavier rain is expected Saturday night.

By Sunday, I think we'll see mainly dry skies during the morning with a good chance of rain and storms by the afternoon and evening.   The NAM is again indicating the best chance of rain after 12pm.


Highs on Sunday will reach the lower 70s.  I'm thinking a somewhat drier weather pattern early next week with an occasional shower or storm during the afternoon/evening.

 

J-P Dice

Fox 6 Chief Meteorologist

jdice@wbrc.com

Twitter: @jpdice_Fox6

NHC Has Retired The Name Sandy, Changes To Post-Tropical Advisories

(Source: NOAA)

Yesterday we first reported that the name “Sandy” has been retired from the list of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone names. This is often the case for historic tropical systems that cause major loss of life and property. There will also be a change in the way the National Hurricane Center issues advisory products and this change can be attributed to Sandy. 

For years the National Hurricane Center discontinued advisories when tropical systems morphed into hybrid systems or mid-latitude type systems. The role of post-tropical updates was always passed along to what we now call the Weather Prediction Center. Many believe that the strength of Sandy was underestimated by residents in the northeast because the NHC discontinued advisories. However, as we know this system became a “Superstorm” as it impacted the northeast. Now the hurricane center will continue issuing advisories if the tropical cyclone develops into a hybrid system or extratropical low and continues to threaten life and property. 

Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
Twitter @weswyattweather
Facebook.com/weswyattfox6
wwyatt@wbrc.com

Detecting Sea Surface Temperature From Space

NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Laboratory shared this neat satellite image yesterday. This image displays color contrasts associated with changes in sea surface temperature over the Gulf of Mexico. This image was captured using the VIIRS instrument on-board the NASA/NOAA Suomi NPP Satellite. 

Data from buoys near the Gulf coast are reporting water temperatures in the 60s. If you look closely at the water near the mouth of the Mississippi River, you can see the cold water (dark) eddies draining into the gulf.

The resolution associated with this instrument is quite amazing. Over the next two months meteorologists will be monitoring images like this one very closely as water temperatures approach the mid 70s. This is the minimal temperature range associated with tropical cyclone formation. The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st. If conditions are favorable, tropical cyclones can form in the month of May.

Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
wwyatt@wbrc.com
Twitter @weswyattweather
Facebook.com/weswyattfox6

Hurricane Season Satellite Loop

Check out this animation of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This was compiled by the NOAA Visualization Laboratory using the GOES Satellites. The 2012 Season featured 19 named storms and 10 hurricanes. The season ties as the third most active on record, with 7 more storms that the historical average.

Fox 6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt

Monitoring A New Tropical Depression...Expected To Become Tropical Storm Sandy

The 18^th Tropical Depression of the 2012 hurricane season has developed. The center of this warm core low is over the central Caribbean and the system is now stationary. We expect a north-northeasterly movement to begin over the next 24 hours.  During this time the Depression is expected to become Tropical Storm Sandy.

You may hear us talk about the Caribbean being a more favorable area for tropical development in early summer. However, tropical systems in this region are not uncommon in October. If you recall Hurricane Wilma, the most intense hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin, developed in October 2005.

Currently no states are in the forecast path of this system. That could change if the system favors the more eastern solutions forecasted by some models. Interestingly, the system could have an indirect impact on the weather in Alabama later this week. Be sure to check out the morning blog post from Dr. Tim Coleman.

Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt

wwyatt@wbrc.com

Twitter @weswyattweather

Facebook.com/weswyattfox6

Impressive View of Hurricane Rafael

Hurricane Rafael is putting on quite a show tonight. The tropical cyclone is going through a strengthening phase as it turns north into the Atlantic. At last check the maximum sustained winds were up to 85 mph. The good news is that the steering winds will help turn the system northeast over the coming days.   

Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt

wwyatt@wbrc.com

Twitter @weswyattweather

Facebook.com/weswyattfox6

Tropical Storm Rafael Gaining Strength

Tropical Storm Rafael is a much stronger system tonight, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. Rafael may become a hurricane tomorrow.  The latest forecast is for the Tropical Storm to continue northwest and then turn north-northeast. The storm system over our state will be crossing into the Atlantic and forcing Rafael northward. This system is not forecasted to make a landfall in lower 48.
Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyat

wwyatt@wbrc.com

Twitter @weswyattweather

Facebook.com/weswyattfox6

Tropical Storm Warnings For U.S. Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Rafael has prompted tropical Storm warnings for several locations in the eastern Caribbean today. This includes the United States and British Virgin Islands. Rafael is a weaker tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.  The system is centered about 200 miles south-southeast of St. Croix. The latest motion was north-northwest and that track should continue through early next week.  The tropical system Patty has dissipated near the Bahamas and this system is no longer a depression.

Fox6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt

wwyatt@wbrc.com

Twitter @weswyattweather

Facebook.com/weswyattfox6

A Trio In The Tropics: Nadine May Form This Week

We’re continuing to watch a trio of tropical systems over the Atlantic today. The good news is that all of the tropical features look to remain well away from the United States. Tropical Storm Leslie and Category One-Hurricane Michael are both tracking northward.  Leslie is the one system that will impact an additional landmass. Tropical Storm warnings and hurricane watches are now in effect for Newfoundland. 

There is a 90% chance a new system could be taking shape over the eastern Atlantic. I included the latest GFDL model valid for midnight Thursday night. This model and others show the disturbance “Invest 91L” turning north into the central Atlantic over the coming days. This system could become “Nadine” this week.

 w

FOX6 Meteorologist Wes Wyatt
wwyatt@wbrc.com
Twitter @weswyattweather
Facebook: facebook.com/weswyattfox6

August Rainfall Totals