First off, Happy Mother's Day to all of the moms out there, including those with fur babies!
The Fox 6 viewing area squeezes out one more mainly quiet day. There is only a slight chance for a few pop up showers and storms across far east Alabama. Temperatures will once again be on the toasty side and quickly rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Tropical Storm Ana made landfall early this morning and has weakened to a minimal tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It will continue slowly northward and weaken to a depression today and then curve northeastward early in the week. Despite some weakening, storms spiraling in off the Atlantic could produce severe weather in North Carolina. There is a marginal risk across that area. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. The hurricane center said Ana is the earliest subtropical (or tropical) storm to form in the Atlantic basin since a previous Ana, in 2003.
The greatest concern for severe storms is once again across the Midwest on Mother's Day, but a little farther eastward. Storms are ongoing at this point in time and development northeastward with time across Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Iowa is expected. Storms will be capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The greatest tornado and hail threat is across the enhanced risk threat area.
Storms quickly fire up by lunchtime and folks better be weather aware across eastern Nebraska to western Missouri to western Arkansas. It's not going to be a good day to enjoy Mother's Day outside.
By late afternoon, the radar will be going bonkers with severe storms across the Midwest. The potent storm system responsible for the severe weather will continue shifting eastward tonight.
By the time the cold front associated with this storm system reaches the Tennessee River Valley, it won't have the kind of wind energy to work with to produce as much severe weather than previous days. The strongest storms on Monday afternoon will likely develop across north Mississippi, west Tennessee, west Kentucky and points northward. Storms may not have a ton of wind energy to work with farther eastward but there will be enough shear and instability for severe storms to potentially impact areas along and especially west of I-65.
The simulated radar for Monday afternoon and evening shows isolated to widely scattered development. That means most places will be storm-free. It's tough to pinpoint the exact location as to where storms will fire tomorrow, but this gives you an idea of the nature of what may form. Be weather aware and have a way to get weather warnings especially if you are going to be traveling or outside after 3pm until sunset.
If you haven't already, cut the grass because it might get a drink of water on Monday and a better chance on Tuesday. Model data agrees that Tuesday is the best chance for some rain. Most places will see about .10" to .20" of rainfall though some locations between Monday and Tuesday could see locally up to 1". It all depends on where storms set up on Monday evening.
The next best chance sets up on Friday and Saturday as another storm system moves in. A strong or severe pulse thunderstorm can't be ruled out but not the tornado producing type. All of the wind energy needed for storms like that will be once again across the Midwest. It seems like we dodged a bullet this spring in the severe storm and tornado department.
That's the latest from the Fox 6 Storm Warn Team!
Have a great rest of the weekend,
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist