The big picture shows several tropical waves tracking westward as they come off the African coast.
The closest wave to the coast has no chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.
The second tropical wave is now entering the extreme eastern Caribbean Sea. There is a 40% chance for cyclone development in 48 hours and a 70% chance over the next 5 days as it enters the western part of the sea.
Future data shows the system entering the Gulf at the end of the week.
The spaghetti model tracks have some consensus in the short term but diverge in the long term. Remember, a tropical system can strengthen over water but weakens over land. That means the track is critical to predicting the future strength. Other factors to consider besides where the center of the storm tracks over, is water temperatures and wind shear.
I will say this.... I'll be out of town after next weekend and so I'm sure it will hook north and hit Alabama, knowing my luck. ;) History proves that more often than not that when I leave town, bad weather strikes. Ugh! I hope not!
We will keep you posted!!!
Jill Gilardi WBRC First Alert Certified Meteorologist