The main long range computer models that simulate the future of the atmosphere show completely different solutions for what "might" happen on Monday the 17th. Below are some forecast images from both models for Monday morning of the 17th.
Our "friend" is the EURO as of now:
- Notice the cold air is bottled up across Canada!
- A trough is digging across the county aka a dip in the jet stream.
- Upper low across the 4 corners region.
- Southwesterly flow across the Southeast.
- 540 thickness blue dashed line aka the cold enough air for perhaps winter precipitation is along the I-70 corridor.
- Precipitation breaking out across the Southeast. All would be liquid due to warm temperatures.
Our "foe" as of now is the GFS:
- Notice a stronger trough digging southward & the transport of colder air south.
- No upper low trying to form across the SW.
- Still a SW flow across the Southeast.
- Notice how much heavier the precipitation is.
- Notice how much farther south the 540 thickness line in.
- Precipitation would be snow in Missouri and parts of Arkansas.
What is the GFS showing the rest of the day?
Cold air surging southeast, precipitation changing over to sleet and snow though the best lift and moisture exiting meaning a small window for wintry weather. GFS hints at a light dusting possible across northern Alabama on Monday which is 252 hours from now.
This is a long ways out and a lot can change between now and then. It is something we'll be monitoring in the coming days. I expect the models to continue to flip flop on possible solutions. Be sure to check back over the weekend for additional long range updates.
If you have any questions feel free to ask,
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist