The rest of Saturday morning looks fairly quiet with thinning clouds. A spotty shower can't be ruled out to the south of I-20 but most places look to stay dry. If you are attending one of the many outdoor activities and events going on today, you shouldn't run into any issues early on but that could change this afternoon through the evening hours.
A large mass of showers and storms moves along the Gulf Coast this afternoon and the northern shield of precipitation looks to impact areas along and south of I-20 during the early afternoon hours. This area of rain may be our saving grace and may lower the threat for severe storms this afternoon by robbing some of the greatest moisture and instability. Have an umbrella with you at all times this afternoon.
I think some of the strongest storms will occur along the Gulf Coast including south Alabama and Georgia and across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee River Valley this Saturday afternoon and evening. There is an enhanced risk for severe storms across parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky. That's where the greatest risk for storms capable of producing tornadoes will develop. Farther south, there is a slight risk which includes the majority of the Fox 6 viewing area. That means severe storms are likely but more isolated in nature and of different intensities.
The radar after 3pm will most likely be speckled with isolated to widely scattered showers and storms. I think enough instability will be in place for some of the storms to turn severe. We are not expecting widespread severe storms but more hit or miss in nature. That threat will persist through 9pm before any activity that forms, fizzles out.
The severe weather parameters look high enough that the strongest of the storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. There is still a tornado threat as well but it's slightly lower than hail and wind. New model data comes out later this morning and we will reassess the severe threat and update the graphics and forecast if needed. This is not a clear, cut forecast. Subtle small scale features can have large impacts. Residual boundaries left over by morning storms can pose big problems and so we highly recommend that you check back with us at several times during the day.
I understand there are a lot of outdoor activities and events going on today and you are probably wondering if it is safe to go or not.
Here are my recommendations:
- Get the Fox 6 Weather App if you haven't already on your phone. The app is so handy because you get weather alerts, can track what's on radar, watch our live stream, have access to our weather blog and submit storm pictures.
- Don't have a smart phone? Before you leave your house, sign up for text alerts by visiting www.myfoxal.com/weather.
- Check the radar before leaving on your app.
- Bring rain gear.
- Turn volume up so you can hear if a watch or warning is issued for your location.
- If a watch is issued, plan on leaving the outdoor event and finding shelter.
- If a warning is issued, find shelter immediately.
Some of you will get to enjoy a pretty quiet day while others will see several hours of nice weather followed by stormy conditions. Just be weather aware and we will do our best to keep you informed of changing weather.
Jill Gilardi Fox 6 Meteorologist