Here comes another 2 sided storm system, meaning it has both a winter side and a spring side to it.
On Monday, severe thunderstorms, including supercells, are expected to develop late in the day across northwestern to north-central Texas and western Oklahoma with large hail and a few tornadoes possible. Additional strong to severe storms may also flare up farther east, from eastern Texas into the Ark-La-Tex region, and farther north into Kansas.
Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and tornadoes will remain possible through the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday. These storms should merge into an intense squall line, which will track across north and central Texas, Oklahoma and southern Kansas. A broad area of thunderstorms with heavy rain will flare up well to the east, from the Ozarks to the mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley.
On Tuesday, severe thunderstorms will continue from eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma to Arkansas, southern Misssouri, Louisiana and eventually Mississippi. Although the most widespread threat will be damaging winds with a persistent squall line, tornadoes remain possible, especially with any storms that form well ahead of an advancing cold front.
Overnight, the risk of severe thunderstorms may spread as far east as Alabama and southwest Tennessee. On Wednesday, any lingering severe threat will depend on how much instability remains with the system as it moves northeast. Right now, it appears that a few severe storms could fire from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, southeast Louisiana, the Florida panhandle and possibly parts of Georgia.
The latest model data shows the squall line impacting west Alabama by sunrise and central Alabama by the mid morning hours.
The question all along remains how much instability will be in place by the time the line arrives. We think the greatest will set up across south Alabama and that's where the greatest chance for severe storms including tornadoes and strong winds will be possible on Wednesday.
There still may be enough instability that develops as far north as I-20 for a few severe storms on Wednesday.
The greatest versus slight chance zones could easily shift farther north or south and that's why we urge you to keep up with the latest forecasts as we track this developing winter/spring-like storm system. The best way is through the WBRC First Alert Weather App.
Jill Gilardi WBRC First Alert Meteorologist